In May 2025, the price of polyester bottle flakes showed a fluctuating trend of first rising, then falling, and then slightly rebounding. According to the price data from SunSirs, as of May 29th, the average sales price of PET was 6,077 RMB/ton. The core driving factors for the price of bottle tablets this month include cost fluctuations, persistent supply-demand contradictions, and seasonal demand differentiation.

Price trend

At the beginning of May, spot prices in the East China region fluctuated narrowly around 5700 RMB/ton, and downstream soft drink companies had a low willingness to replenish inventory, with transactions mainly focused on small orders for essential needs.

After Labor Day, supported by the rebound of crude oil and the strengthening of raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol, coupled with the reduction of PX unit load and the increase of PTA costs, the price of bottle chips rose. On the 14th, the highest quotation in East China reached 6,185 RMB/ton.

In the second half of the month, the decline in crude oil dragged down the weakness of raw materials, and the price of polyester bottle flakes fell. Mainstream filament factories planned to reduce production by 15%, and the raw material PTA fell to 4,890 RMB/ton. The price of bottle flakes continued to drop to the line of 6,000 RMB/ton, and then the price fluctuated weakly.

Analysis of Core Influencing Factors

1. Cost side: Cost fluctuations dominate prices

Crude oil prices fluctuate: OPEC+production expectations are intertwined with Middle East geopolitical risks, with Brent crude fluctuating around $70 per barrel, directly transmitting to PTA and ethylene glycol. The PTA processing fee was temporarily restored to 325 RMB/ton, but the addition of 4.5 million tons of production capacity throughout the year suppressed long-term profits; The inventory of ethylene glycol at the port is high (584,400 tons), and the loose supply and demand are difficult to change.

Aggregation cost increases: Due to the unplanned reduction of PX plant load, the weekly production cost of bottle flakes has increased by 509 RMB/ton, and the industry loss has expanded to -317 RMB/ton, increasing the willingness of factories to raise prices.

2. Supply side: high operating rate and inventory

High operating rate and new production capacity: The industry operating rate remains at 87.93%, with a weekly output of 365,000 tons. Combined with the planned new production capacity of 2.15 million tons in 2025, the long-term oversupply pattern remains unchanged.

High inventory levels: Inventory days reach 16-18 days, although spot circulation is tight in some areas, it overall suppresses the space for price rebound.

3. Demand side: Weak recovery

Weak domestic demand: The operating rate of the soft drink industry has recovered to 80% -90%, but the inventory of end products remains high (23.64 days for weaving enterprises), and replenishment is only limited to small orders for basic needs.

Marginal weakening of export support: In April, the export volume was 580,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.3%. However, due to the global economic slowdown and anti-dumping investigations, the increase is difficult to offset domestic supply pressure.

4. Policy wise: Negative sentiment disturbance

Futures margin increase: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has adjusted the margin for bottle futures to 9% since May to curb short-term speculative trading.

Environmental policy suppression: The policy of replacing biodegradable materials has a long-term impact on demand expectations, coupled with uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and market confidence is fragile.

In terms of cost, crude oil lacks sustained rebound momentum, PTA's new production capacity suppresses processing fees, and the accumulation of ethylene glycol is difficult to solve, resulting in weak cost support. In terms of demand, the stocking of beverages during the peak season from late May to June will begin. If demand exceeds expectations and is released, or if prices are temporarily supported.

Overall, the price of polyester bottle chips may continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. The actual trend still needs to be monitored for changes in external news, crude oil prices, equipment changes, and whether peak season demand is fulfilled.

If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.