The BR market in May first rose and then fell. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of May 29th, the BR market price in East China was 11,910 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.33% from 11,950 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 6.81% from the highest point of 12,780 RMB/ton in the cycle. The price of raw material butadiene first rose and then fell, and overall it rose; Shunding rubber production has significantly increased compared to April, but supply pressure still exists; The downstream tire production increased significantly at the beginning of the month, providing strong support for the demand for BR. In late May, Shunding rubber returned to weakness, with supply prices gradually decreasing and market quotes falling. As of May 29th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 11,850-12,200 RMB/ton.

In May, the price of butadiene first rose and then fell, and overall it rose. The cost support of BR weakened at the end of the month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of May 28th, the price of butadiene was 9,800 RMB/ton, an increase of 8.09% from 9,066 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 14.29% from the high point of 11,433 RMB/ton during the cycle.

In May, there was a significant increase in the early stage of the domestic BR plant construction, followed by a slight increase in the later stage. The overall construction has increased significantly compared to April. As of May 29th, the domestic BR plant construction is around 76%, and supply pressure still exists.

Demand side: After the Labor Day at the beginning of the month, downstream tire production increased significantly, and later maintained a slight fluctuation trend, mainly supporting rubber demand. As of May 23rd, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 78%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 65%.; As of the week of May 23rd, domestic tire companies had 43 days of finished steel tire inventory, which remained unchanged on a week on week basis; The inventory of semi-finished steel tires has been 47 days, with an increase of 1 day in the weekly cycle ratio.

From a fundamental perspective, analysts from SunSirs believe that the raw material butadiene market will rise and fall, and the expected cost support for BR will weaken; The stable start of downstream production provides strong support for the demand for BR, and there is still pressure on the supply side of BR. Overall, it is expected that the BR market will consolidate weakly in the later stage.

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