Price trend review

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, on May 23, spot electrolytic nickel was quoted at 124,358 RMB/ton, a weekly decline of 1.50%. The favorable macroeconomic policies failed to offset the weak fundamentals, and the nickel price fell in a narrow range.

Macroeconomics: The policy boost effect is limited

Domestic interest rate cuts are insufficient: the central bank announced interest rate cuts and lowered deposit rates, but corporate and resident credit demand was sluggish, real consumption and investment willingness were weak, and metal demand expectations did not improve significantly.

The marginal effect of Sino-US trade easing has weakened: the boost to market sentiment from the tariff reduction agreement has been gradually digested, and there is a lack of new policy stimulus points in the short term.

Supply side: Excess pressure continues

Global oversupply intensifies: WBMS data shows that the global refined nickel supply will be in excess of 39,400 tons in March 2025 (production of 317,300 tons and consumption of 277,800 tons), and the excess will expand month-on-month.

Nickel ore price differentiation: Indonesian nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price rose 2.43% to US$15,415/wet ton (the rainy season continues to affect mining); the rainy season in the Philippines ended, shipping volume rebounded, nickel ore prices fell, and cost support weakened marginally.

Inventory differentiation: LME nickel inventory increased by 3,414 tons (to 198,636 tons) from the previous week, and overseas supply and demand were loose; domestic Shanghai nickel inventory fell by 1,083 tons (to 22,418 tons) from the previous week, and domestic spot pressure eased slightly, but the global surplus was still under pressure.

Demand side: Stainless steel off-season + new energy structural weakening

Weak demand for stainless steel: The off-season effect is evident, steel mill inventory accumulation suppresses purchasing intentions, and nickel demand only maintains rigid demand. On May 22, the spot price of stainless steel was 12,242.86 RMB/ton, down 0.4% in a week.

Differentiation of new energy demand: Ternary battery installation volume declines: Ternary battery installation volume in April fell by 7.0% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year, and the proportion shrank to 17.2%; Lithium iron phosphate's dominant position strengthened: the proportion increased to 82.8%, further squeezing the application space of nickel in power batteries. Export drag: Ternary precursor exports fell 67% year-on-year in April, and weak overseas demand constrained nickel consumption.

Market forecast: The oversupply pattern is difficult to change, demand lacks highlights, macroeconomic boost is weak, there is no obvious upward drive in the fundamentals, and the cost of Indonesian nickel ore has risen, but support still exists. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a range of fluctuations.

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