Market Review of Fuel Oil 180CST in 2024
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the 180CST fuel oil market in China will first rise and then fall in 2024, with a slight increase at the end of the year and an overall slight rise in the market. On January 1st, the mainstream price of domestic fuel oil at 180CST in China was 5,418 RMB/ton, and as of December 31st, the mainstream market price was around 5,504 RMB/ton, with an annual increase of 1.59%; Among them, the highest price in 2024 appeared around 5,816 RMB/ton on April 30, and the lowest price was 5,346 RMB/ton on November 27, with a maximum annual amplitude of 8.08%. The vibration amplitude of fuel oil in 2024 is significantly smoother than that in 2023.
The domestic ship fuel market fluctuated and rose in January and February, with strong domestic blending costs. In addition, the market's urgent need for stocking before and after the Spring Festival boosted support for the domestic ship fuel market; The domestic ship fuel market continued to rise in March and April, mainly due to the firm prices of blended raw materials and the increase in bulk freight rates in the shipping market; From May to November, the domestic ship fuel market experienced a volatile downward trend, with crude oil prices fluctuating and domestic blended raw material prices falling weakly. In addition, the weak terminal shipping market resulted in light market transactions, and the market mainly focused on essential purchases, providing limited support for the ship fuel market; The volatile rise in the crude oil market in December boosted the domestic ship fuel market, with mixed raw material prices rising and the ship fuel market rising.
Forecast of Fuel Oil 180CST Market in 2025
Cost perspective: In terms of cost, crude oil prices are an important factor affecting fuel oil prices, and the uncertainty of future crude oil prices will lead to fluctuations in fuel oil prices. In 2024, under the influence of geopolitical, macro, and supply and demand fundamentals, international crude oil will emerge from a trend of rising and falling, gradually fluctuating and narrowing, and oil prices will gradually return to fundamentals. The external environment in which crude oil operates in 2025 is still quite complex, with intricate geopolitical situations, which will have a direct impact on oil prices from time to time, leading to more drastic fluctuations in oil prices. It is expected that the average oil price in 2025 may still be slightly higher than in 2024, but due to demand constraints, there will not be much room for fluctuations in oil prices.
Supply side: According to the guidance of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments, by 2025, the primary processing capacity of crude oil in China will be controlled within 1 billion tons, with a refining capacity of 10 million tons accounting for about 55%. The production capacity structure and layout will gradually be optimized, the technical equipment strength will be further enhanced, and the efficiency of energy and resource utilization will be improved. The fuel oil production in 2024 has significantly decreased. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's fuel oil production in 2024 was 43.031 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%; The comparison of fuel oil production in China from 2015 to 2024 is as follows:
Demand side: According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the apparent consumption in 2024 is 51.4605 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.23%.
From the perspective of demand, in recent years, the demand for fuel oil has maintained a growing trend year by year, and the market for marine fuel oil has continued to develop rapidly, becoming the main driver of fuel oil consumption growth. The total consumption of marine fuel oil accounts for nearly half of the total consumption of fuel oil. The Ministry of Transport released data on the national port cargo and container throughput from January to November 2024: From January to November, the total cargo throughput of ports in China was 16.04 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Among them, the domestic trade cargo throughput reached 11.08 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, and the foreign trade cargo throughput reached 4.96 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%; The national container cargo throughput was 304.55 million tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.3%. The overall fundamentals of the shipping market are not expected to change significantly in 2025, and it is anticipated that there will be no significant increase in shipping demand. The shipping market may experience oversupply, and it is expected that there will be little change in fuel oil consumption in 2025.
Import and Export: According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China imported a total of 28.7035 million tons of fuel oil in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.82%; The total export volume of fuel oil in China was 20.274 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.82%.
On December 31, 2024, the Ministry of Commerce announced the "Application Conditions, Allocation Principles, and Related Procedures for the Non State Owned Trade Import Allowable Volume of Refined Oil (Fuel Oil) in 2025". The allowable import volume for non-state-owned trade of fuel oil in 2025 is 20 million tons. The allocation method for the import allowance of fuel oil in 2025 will be "first come, first served".
On December 25, 2024, the Ministry of Commerce announced the first batch of low sulfur marine fuel oil (ship fuel) export quotas for 2025, totaling 8 million tons, which is the same as the first batch of quotas issued in 2024. Among them, Sinopec has 3.82 million tons, PetroChina has 3.44 million tons, CNOOC has 700,000 tons, Sinochem has 20,000 tons, and Zhejiang Petrochemical has 20,000 tons. The issuance of quotas this time is still mainly based on stable production of Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC. The adjustment of quota amounts for each group is mainly related to their overall production situation of low sulfur ship fuel in 2024.
Forecast of Fuel Oil 180CST Market in 2025
Overall, the trend of the international crude oil market in 2025 is one of the important factors affecting the domestic fuel oil market. There may be some pressure on the supply and demand of the domestic fuel oil market. In addition, the consumption of ship oil has obvious seasonality, and the shipping terminal market in 2025 has not improved significantly. The situation of more ships and less cargo still exists, and the market's essential procurement is the main focus. It is expected that in 2025, the domestic fuel oil 180CST market will experience price increases due to the impact of Spring Festival stocking in January and February. The market will fluctuate downward during the off-season of demand from March to July, and fluctuate upward during the peak consumption season from August to October. In November and December, adjustments will mainly be made due to the influence of rainy and snowy weather. It is expected that the price of fuel oil 180CST will fluctuate widely in 2025, with a maximum amplitude of about 10%.
If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.