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SunSirs: Supply Pressure Doubles, China Soybean Meal Market Rebounds weakly
July 10 2024 14:15:17SunSirs(Selena)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, since June 10th, the domestic soybean meal market has continued to decline weakly, with a slight rebound at the end of the month. The rebound is weak, with low level oscillations being the main trend. In early July, it still maintains a weak downward trend. On June 10th, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,458 RMB/ton. On July 9th, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,298 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.63%.

Supply side: The total import volume of soybeans from January to May 2024 was 37.37 million tons, and China's soybean import volume in May was 10.22 million tons, an increase of 19% compared to April. Since June, the import volume of soybeans to port has continued to increase, with imports expected to exceed 10 million tons. It is expected that the import volume of soybeans from China to Hong Kong in July will be about 11 million tons, reaching a new high for the year. The supply of imported raw materials for soybeans will be loose, and the domestic soybean meal market will continue to rise under pressure.

Inventory: According to the statistical chart of soybean meal inventory in SunSirs, the inventory of soybean meal continued to decline from January to April 2024, and the inventory for the week of April 5th was at the lowest point of the year, only 300,000 tons. Starting from mid April, soybean meal inventory has shown a rebound trend. After May, soybean meal inventory continued to accumulate, and inventory levels continued to rise. In June, soybean meal inventory remained high, and as of the week ending on the 14th, inventory levels increased to around 1 million tons. In July, soybean meal inventory reached a new high for the year. As of the week ending July 5th, inventory reached around 1.05 million tons, and inventory pressure continued to increase. The domestic soybean meal market continued to weaken.

Futures: After June 10th, the decline in Brazilian soybean production has become a foregone conclusion, and the US Agricultural Bank's report on global soybean production decline meets expectations. Starting from July, the planting progress of American beans has been relatively fast, and the expectation of high yields has increased. The weather theme is favorable and lacks motivation. At the futures level, bearish sentiment is dominant, and the domestic soybean meal futures market is oscillating and falling, with insufficient upward momentum. The overall weak trend in the soybean meal market has led to a downward trend, with the spot market mainly experiencing weak oscillations with the market.

Demand: In mid June, with hot weather, the demand for feed in the terminal breeding industry is flat, and the quantity of soybean meal purchased by feed factories has declined. Terminal feed factories purchase on demand, but the market lacks confidence in the soybean meal market. Soybean meal transactions are flat, demand is sluggish, and the soybean meal market continues to weaken.

Agricultural product analysts from SunSirs believe that from June 10th to July 9th, soybean meal fluctuated and fell for a month. In mid July, the import volume of soybeans to Hong Kong continued to increase, and supply pressure remained, making it difficult for terminal feed demand to improve. In terms of futures, the expectation of high yields for US soybeans has increased, and bearish sentiment has suppressed it. The soybean meal market will continue to weaken in the future.


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