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SunSirs: Crude Oil Prices are Falling, China Domestic Ship Fuel Market Continues to Decline
May 29 2024 10:48:33SunSirs(Selena)

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of domestic fuel oil 180CST continued to decline this week. As of May 26th, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 5,642.00 RMB/ton (including tax), a decrease of 1.09% from the price of 5,704.00 RMB/ton on May 20th.

According to the SunSirs, as of May 26th, the self pickup low sulfur price for fuel oil in the Dalian area of CNOOC is 5,900 RMB/ton for 180cst, and 6,000 RMB/ton for 120cst self pickup low sulfur fuel oil; The price for self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in the Shanghai area of CNOOC is 5,530 RMB/ton for 180cst, and 5,630 RMB/ton for self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in 120cst.

This week's crude oil market has declined, on the one hand, market concerns about the economic and demand prospects have intensified, and international oil prices have declined. On the other hand, a report released by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Wednesday showed that US crude oil and distillate inventories increased last week, with US crude oil inventories increasing by 1.8 million barrels to 458.8 million barrels.

In terms of international fuel oil, it is understood that the Singapore Enterprise Development Group (ESG): As of the week ending May 22, Singapore's fuel inventory decreased by 3.377 million barrels, reaching a five-year and a half low of 15.778 million barrels; The inventory of light distillate oil decreased by 720,000 barrels to a 4-week low of 14.536 million barrels; Medium distillate oil inventories increased by 823,000 barrels, reaching a two-week high of 10.938 million barrels.

At present, the price monitoring of fuel oil 180CST is at a one-year high, two-year median, and three-year median. According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the average price of fuel oil 180CST in the past three years is 5,686.70 RMB/ton, with a median value of 5,673.75 RMB/ton, a minimum value of 4,537.50 RMB/ton, and a maximum value of 6,760.00 RMB/ton. The bottom price difference (the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 1,054.5 RMB/ton, and the top price difference (the highest price difference in the past three years) is -1,118 RMB/ton.

In the near future, the international crude oil trend has fallen, and the domestic mixed raw material prices have declined. In addition, the weak market situation in gasoline and diesel has led to a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the ship fuel market; The shipping market has limited transportation, limited terminal refueling by shipowners, and sluggish transactions. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is around 5,500-5,900 RMB/ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120CST is around 5,600-6,000 RMB/ton, which can be negotiated separately. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will be dominated by weak consolidation in the near future.


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