According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, cement in East China has recently experienced a weak decline, with prices at 298.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and 304.00 RMB/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.01% and a month on month decrease of 1.30%. The current price has dropped by 27.96% year-on-year.
Recently, cement prices have risen in some areas of East China. From the above chart, it can be seen that the cement market has been mainly fluctuating and falling in the past three months, with prices hitting bottom and rebounding this week. The Yangtze River Delta region plans to suspend kilns for 90 days, and there is an expectation of a decrease in cement supply. In order to improve profits, enterprises in East China have led the increase in cement prices, and the cement market has begun to rise.
This week, coal prices have been running weakly. In terms of origin, the overall production and sales of thermal coal remain normal, and the overall supply remains stable. However, the overall focus is on implementing long-term cooperative shipping. At that time, the overall coal consumption was in the off-season, and the sales situation of the coal mines in the production area was generally average, with most of the coal prices at the pit mouth remaining stable. Traders are more cautious in procurement, and market transactions are average. In terms of downstream ports, coal prices are generally weak this week due to the impact of long-term coal replenishment on power plant inventories, which has led to a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards the market's coal supply. The overall market release is average, and the terminal market mainly maintains a small amount of rigid demand procurement for thermal coal. In the traditional off-season market context, overall transactions are relatively average.
From January to February 2024, the national real estate development investment was about 1.18 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9.0%, which is 0.6 percentage points narrower than that of January to December 2023; Among them, residential investment was 882.3 billion RMB, a decrease of 9.7%. From January to February, the construction area of real estate development enterprises reached 6.669 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.0%; The newly constructed area of housing is 94.29 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 29.7%. Among them, the newly started residential construction area decreased by 30.6%. In recent years, real estate investment has gradually declined, and infrastructure demand is difficult to hedge against the impact of the real estate downturn. The support for the cement market is weak.
According to the prediction of SunSirs, the cement market has already bottomed out, with a large upward space and an accelerated recovery of market demand. Therefore, cement product analysts from SunSirs believe that in the short term, the cement market will mainly experience a slight increase.
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