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SunSirs: Fundamental Weakness is Difficult to Improve, China PA6 Fluctuated and Consolidated in early April
April 11 2024 10:59:27SunSirs(Selena)

In early April, the domestic PA6 market remained stable with slight fluctuations, and spot prices fluctuated. According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, as of April 10th, the domestic PA6 mixed benchmark price was 14,800 RMB/ton, with a price increase or decrease of +0.17% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cost factor: In the early stage, the high domestic load and high inventory of caprolactam upstream of PA6 caused its price to rapidly decline. Recently, due to the continuous rise of raw material pure benzene, the spot price of caprolactam stopped falling and stabilized in early April. On the supply side, although 87% of domestic caprolactam enterprises are still at a high load position, there are more enterprises with maintenance arrangements in the future, and there is an expectation of production narrowing, which may share some supply pressure. Overall, the cost support of caprolactam for PA6 has shifted from weak to stable.

Supply level: In early April, the load of PA6 production enterprises remained stable with an increase, and the average operating rate was raised from around 83% to over 85%. The market supply is stable, the supply of goods is abundant, and the inventory level is generally stable. However, due to the slower digestion speed of some sliced products, the accumulation of inventory has begun to increase recently, and the support from the supply side for the PA6 market has weakened accordingly.

On the demand side: In early April, the downstream enterprises of domestic PA6 had a decent load. Currently, the production of nylon filament is stable at a high level of around 84%, while the production rate of weaving is fluctuating at a narrow range of 73%. The main logic of downstream PA6 stocking still revolves around maintaining production. Although there is some support for demand side from rigid consumption, the profitability of nylon enterprises is poor, which will inevitably affect their willingness to stock up in the future. The bearish sentiment may gradually spread to PA6.

At the same time, the negative market trend of PA6 in the early March persisted throughout the month, causing the current market confidence to have not yet recovered. The buyer camp is influenced by a negative mentality, and trading operations on the exchange tend to be cautious. At present, the flow of goods is mainly concentrated in the delivery of early orders, and there has been no increase in volume for new purchases. Based on various downstream news, the demand side support for PA6 in the future may be favorable but difficult to achieve.

In early April, the PA6 market fluctuated narrowly. From a fundamental perspective, it is expected that the supply pressure of PA6 will rise, and the sluggish consumption is likely to continue. Technically speaking, the probability of crossing the 30 day line above the 7-day line in the short term is relatively low, and the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs indicates that the possibility of PA6 falling in the future is greater than rising. In summary, the current PA6 market lacks guidance on bullish news, and it is expected that the market will fall more or rise less in the future.


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