Recently (from March 12th to March 20th), the market price of BR has surged significantly. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of March 20th, the market price of BR in East China was 13,940 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.97% from the 13,280 RMB/ton on March 12th. The high price consolidation of raw material butadiene, the decline in the supply of BR, and the high production of downstream tires have formed strong favorable conditions for the cost and supply of BR, resulting in a significant increase in the price of BR.

Recently (3.12-3.20), the price of butadiene has stabilized at a high level, with strong cost support for BR. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of March 20th, the price of butadiene was 11,532 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.03% from March 12th's 11,528 RMB/ton.

In the near future (from March 12th to March 20th), the overall production of BR has remained at a low level of around 6.3%. Units such as Qixiang Tengda and Yangzi Petrochemical have maintained low load operation; Parking and maintenance of Shunding facilities in Jinzhou, Yihua, and Haopu; Zhenhua plans to start parking and maintenance from the 20th; In addition, there are still plans for maintenance of cisplatin units such as Zhejiang Chuanhua in the later stage, and the supply of cisplatin rubber is expected to be mainly tight in the later stage.

Demand side: In the near future (3.12-3.20), downstream tires will start operating at a high level, providing certain support for BR. It is understood that as of March 14th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 79%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is close to 70%; Overall, there is some support for the supply and demand of polyBR, but as the price of polyBR rises, downstream consumers may resist high prices and procurement efforts may slow down.

Market forecast: SunSirs analysts believe that the price of raw material butadiene is still at a high level, and the cost support for BR is strong; While some devices are being shut down and reduced in load, there are still other maintenance plans in the later stage, and the expectation of starting production of BR is further reduced; The cost and commencement of production support the market for BR. However, the current downstream resistance to the high priced supply of BR has slowed down, putting pressure on the BR market. Overall, the current BR market is expected to maintain a high consolidation level in the short term.

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