According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from March 11th to 15th (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market decreased by 2,721 RMB/ton from 2,750 RMB/ton. During the cycle, prices decreased by 1.03%, with a month on month increase of 3.09% and a year-on-year increase of 3.52%. Boosted by the port market and supported by the external procurement of some domestic olefin units, the market atmosphere is relatively active and shipments are smooth. However, due to the gradual recovery of import supply, downstream purchasing sentiment is relatively average, and the domestic methanol market trend is mainly narrow consolidation.
As of the close of March 14th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2405, opened at 2,512 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,545 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,502 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,503 RMB/ton at the end of the trading day, up 28% or 1.12% from the previous settlement day. The trading volume was 1,067,635 lots, and the position was 894,826 lots, with a daily increase of 33,764.
In terms of cost and supply, currently most coal mines in the production area are producing and selling normally, while state-owned large mines still rely mainly on supply guarantee and internal supply. The overall supply level has not fluctuated significantly. At present, there is no significant release of downstream demand, and market activity is still not high. The characteristics of the off-season are beginning to emerge, and the market situation of the main coal producing areas continues to weaken. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the demand side, downstream chlorides: the Luxi chemical plant is operating at reduced load, the Guangxi Jinyi plant is operating at increased load, the Huatai plant is expected to recover, and the demand for chlorides is increasing; Downstream dimethyl ether: Dongying Shenchi's shutdown continues to affect production; Lankao Huitong parking reduces demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: Shandong Yuhuang plant shuts down, resulting in a decrease in MTBE demand; Downstream formaldehyde: Affected by environmental control measures, multiple formaldehyde units such as Lankao and Pengxin have resumed normal operation after reducing load in the Henan region, and there may be little change in short-term formaldehyde demand. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, maintenance of Anqing Shuguang and Xiaoyi Xindongheng equipment; Guangju New Materials, Yunnan Qumei, and Yunnan Pioneer Plant have reduced production; Daqing Methanol Plant, Sinopec Great Wall, and Xinjiang Xinye Plant have been restored. The overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on March 14th, the closing price of methanol in the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was $344.00-$345.00/ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market is 104.00-105.00 cents/gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 304.25-305.25 euros/ton, a decrease of 3 euros/ton.
In the future market, the low arrival volume of methanol and low port inventory provide strong support to the market. However, considering the average downstream demand, especially the significant decline in olefin production, and the impact of abundant supply in the mainland market, methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that the short-term domestic methanol market price consolidation will be the main trend.
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