According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from March 1st to 8th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic market decreased by 2,717 RMB/ton from 2,740 RMB/ton. During the cycle, prices decreased by 0.82%, with a month on month increase of 2.94% and a year-on-year increase of 2.71%. Under supply and inventory pressures, the methanol market is mainly operating weakly, with some downstream main factories shutting down and demand weakening again.
As of the close of March 8th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2405, opened at 2,506 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,533 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,496 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,519 RMB/ton at the end of the trading day, an increase of 9% or 0.36% compared to the previous settlement day. The trading volume was 1,037,272 lots, and the position was 857,523 lots, with a daily increase of 4,538.
On the cost and supply side, global coal supply remains stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not sufficient to support coal prices to continue operating at high levels; In terms of demand, the temperature has risen, the civilian electricity load has fallen, and the overall pressure on power plant inventory is relatively small. Currently, terminals mainly rely on long-term cooperative replenishment, and replenish warehouses according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is more wait-and-see. The short-term thermal coal market may maintain a volatile and weak operation. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the demand side, downstream formaldehyde: the Lianyi unit has increased its negative operation, leading to an increase in formaldehyde demand; Downstream chlorides: The Dongying Huatai unit is expected to recover, with an increase in demand for chlorides; Downstream MTBE: The shutdown of Dongying Shenchi continues to affect production, resulting in a decrease in MTBE demand; The demand for acetic acid and dimethyl ether has not changed much. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, Sichuan Daxing, Ningxia Dadi, and Xinjiang, Ningxia, Yunnan, and Anhui each have one set of equipment maintenance; Chongqing Kabele, Sichuan Lutianhua, JiuRMB Chemical, Xinjiang Guanghui, and Shanghai Mongolia Energy Units have reduced production; A set of equipment in Guanghui, Xinjiang and Ningxia has been restored. The overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on March 7th, the closing price of methanol in the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was 347.00-348.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market was 104.00-105.00 cents per gallon, up 2 cents per gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 314.50-315.50 euros/ton, down 1.5 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, the decrease in supply side will continue to support the bottom mentality of the market. The traditional downstream demand side will be improved. The methanol analyst from SunSirs predicts that the short-term domestic methanol market price consolidation will be the main focus.
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.