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SunSirs: China Rapeseed Oil Market is relatively Strong recently, with Limited Upward Space
March 06 2024 10:33:11SunSirs(Selena)

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the average price of rapeseed oil spot market was 7,801 RMB/ton on February 18th, and 7,965 RMB/ton on March 4th, with a price increase of 2.09% during the period.

The main factors contributing to the strong trend of rapeseed oil in February are: demand side: increased travel during the Spring Festival, good consumption, and periodic replenishment of downstream stocks after the holiday, which boosted the rapeseed oil market; In addition, palm oil has a strong trend, leading the rise in oil and rapeseed oil prices. The January supply and demand report from Malaysia's Palm Oil Board (MPOB) during the Spring Festival period was positive for the oil and fat market.

Supply: Due to the improvement in profits from imported rapeseed pressing, domestic enterprises have increased their purchases of rapeseed. Based on current purchases, it is estimated that 1.02 million tons of imported rapeseed will arrive at the port from February to April, which is still relatively high. In the later stage, domestic imported rapeseed supply will remain loose. Domestic rapeseed oil inventories are at a high level, with rapeseed oil inventories in East China reaching 322,800 tons as of February 29th. Demand: After the completion of the downstream phased replenishment, the demand for rapeseed oil after the holiday is in the off-season, limiting the upward space for rapeseed oil.

Internationally, Canada's rapeseed exports are weak, and the prices of intercontinental exchange rapeseed futures continue to decline, showing a weak trend. The cost support for domestic rapeseed imports is also weak. The expectation of high soybean yields in South America is gradually being fulfilled, and the supply pressure for newly harvested Brazilian soybeans has increased after they are released; In addition, the planting area of American soybeans in the new season is higher than market expectations, and the global soybean supply is loose, suppressing the domestic oil market. Entering March, the palm oil production area is about to enter an increase cycle, and there are many negative factors in the peripheral market, which is bearish for the domestic oil and fat market.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the average market price of soybean oil in Shandong Province was 7,642 RMB/ton on February 18th, and 7,830 RMB/ton on March 4th, with a price increase of 2.46% during the period. On February 18th, the average price of palm oil in the domestic market was 7,220 RMB/ton, and on March 4th, the average price of palm oil in the domestic market was 7,688 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 6.48% during the period. The domestic oil and fat industry is mainly showing a strong and volatile trend, with palm oil having a large upward trend, driving the oil and fat industry to strengthen.

The supply of imported rapeseed is sufficient, and the operating rate of oil factories has significantly increased after the holiday. The demand for oil is in the off-season, and the supply and demand of rapeseed oil are weak; In addition, there are many bearish factors in the peripheral market, and there is currently no effective positive driving force. In the short term, it is expected that the upward space of rapeseed oil will be limited, and it may mainly fluctuate and operate weakly.


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