According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the prices of softwood pulp and broadleaf wood pulp both showed an upward trend in the first week after the Spring Festival. On February 23, 2024, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong Province was 5,886 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.19% compared to the average price of 5,760 RMB/ton on February 18. On February 23, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong was 5,200 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.48% compared to the average price of 5,124 RMB/ton on February 18.
By observing market changes, it can be seen that after the Spring Festival holiday, the spot prices of wood pulp have rebounded and risen, while the futures prices of pulp have been consolidating at a low level, and the market's spot prices have increased year-on-year. In terms of supply, domestic coniferous pulp still relies entirely on imports. In recent months, European port wood pulp inventories have continued to be destocked, and the global pulp industry has maintained a trend of destocking. The US dollar quotation for external markets may still have room for upward adjustment due to this boost. In addition, the volume of pulp shipped from major producing countries to China has begun to decrease, and domestic import pressure may be somewhat alleviated.
However, due to the impact of the domestic Spring Festival holiday, logistics transportation has decreased and shipment volume has weakened. As of February 22, 2024, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.146 million tons, an increase of 16% (296,000 tons) from the previous period, and the inventory showed a cumulative trend for two consecutive cycles.
In terms of demand, due to the average purchasing situation of wood pulp in the market before the Spring Festival, some downstream manufacturers have a relatively low inventory of raw materials, and there is gradually a replenishment situation after the Spring Festival. In addition, the pulp industry chain is experiencing seasonal changes, and downstream production time is relatively concentrated. The peak season for producing finished paper is gradually approaching. After the Spring Festival, some large factories have issued price increase letters for white cardboard and household base paper, which has provided some confidence support to the market. The negative factors on the demand side in the past are gradually disappearing.
In terms of futures, on February 23, 2024, the opening price of the SP2405 main contract for pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,778 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,796 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 5,816 RMB/ton, with a daily increase of 0.66%. The trading volume was 308,900 lots and the position was 189,660 lots.
The prices of downstream white cardboard and gray background white cardboard are temporarily stable. On February 23, the average market price of white cardboard 230g-400g was 5,206.67 RMB/ton, and the average market price of gray background white cardboard 250g was 3,999 RMB/ton. On the supply side, large-scale paper mills in North China have not yet shut down during the Spring Festival, maintaining normal production. However, other regions have been affected by rainy and snowy weather, which has hindered paper mill shipments and slightly increased supply pressure. After the Spring Festival, the market turnover recovered slowly, and the enthusiasm for downstream construction was not high. Most downstream operators planned to resume work after the RMBxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), so many dealers had no intention of replenishing the inventory, and there were few market orders. However, due to the impact of weather, logistics and transportation have been hindered, resulting in a decrease in transportation vehicles and an increase in transportation costs. Therefore, the market is temporarily wait-and-see.
SunSirs Wood Pulp Analyst believes that due to the impact of holiday shutdown, domestic port inventory is in a state of accumulation, and the market is mainly digesting inventory at the current time point. After the Spring Festival, the downstream market will maintain a state of replenishing inventory as needed, and it is expected that the spot price of wood pulp will maintain a range consolidation in the short term.
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