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SunSirs: Dominated by Multiple Bearish Factors, China Soybean Meal Fell by Over 12%
October 11 2023 11:05:22SunSirs(Selena)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, since September, multiple bearish factors have combined, leading to a downward trend in the soybean meal market. The price has been continuously falling, until after the double period, the average market price has dropped to 4,400 RMB, a decrease of over 700 RMB/ton compared to early September. As of October 10th, the average market price of soybean meal was 4,402 RMB/ton, a decrease of 12.17% compared to early September.

The oscillation and decline of soybean meal market in this round are mainly influenced by the following factors:

Supply side: In 2023, the number of imported raw materials of soybeans continued to increase, far exceeding the same period. Among them, the import of soybeans in August was 9.362 million tons, and the cumulative import of soybeans from January to August was 71.654 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%. After September, port soybean inventory remains at a high level. As of the week ending October 10th, port soybean inventory reached 6.8 million tons, an increase of 0.79% compared to the previous week. The pressure on raw material supply is still on, and the rise of soybean meal market is under pressure.

Inventory: According to the statistical chart of domestic soybean meal inventory from January to October, it can be seen that although soybean meal inventory has decreased slightly since the second half of the year, it is still at a high level overall. From June to August, soybean meal inventory continued to show a fluctuating upward trend. After September, soybean meal inventory returned to the first line of 700,000 tons. During the Double Festival period, soybean oil factories gradually shut down for maintenance, and soybean meal inventory decreased, still approaching 700,000 tons overall. Due to high soybean meal inventory, the market continues to be weak and downward.

Futures: Since September, American beans have entered the harvest season, with production basically set and market bearish factors leading. The fluctuation and decline in soybean meal market are the main factors. After the Double Festival, on the first day of trading, the market for soybean meal fell, and the opening price of the main contract was 3,930 RMB/ton, down 92 RMB/ton. On the 10th, soybean meal continued to decline, with a closing price of 3,795 RMB/ton, a decrease of 95 RMB/ton. The futures market suppressed, and the spot soybean meal market fell with the market.

Demand side: Starting from September, terminal pig prices have been continuously declining, and feed factories have insufficient stocking power. They can purchase and use as needed. In mid to late October, due to the approaching Double Festival, the purchasing demand of feed factories has improved. After the holiday, aquaculture entered the off-season of consumption, with a significant decline in aquatic feed. The stock market for aquaculture enterprises ended, and the demand for soybean meal decreased significantly. The demand for feed is sluggish, and the soybean meal market has significantly decreased.

SunSirs agricultural product analyst believes that American soybeans have been listed one after another, with bearish external markets leading to weak domestic demand for terminal feed. However, the momentum for the rise of soybean meal in the future is still insufficient, and the weak decline may be the main trend.


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