Price trend

According to data monitoring by SunSirs, as of September 30, 2023, the domestic market price of MEK was set at 8,850 RMB/ton. Compared with July 1, 2023 (reference price of MEK was 7,333 RMB/ton), the price increased by 1,517 RMB/ton, an increase of 20.68%.

Analysis review

In the third quarter of 2023, the domestic MEK market as a whole experienced a fluctuating and upward trend. Starting from early July, the domestic MEK market continued to move upwards amidst the fluctuations. During September, with the support of the Golden September effect and multiple positive factors, the center of the MEK market continued to move towards a high level. In late September, the market hit its highest point in the year. On September 20th, the domestic MEK market price was referenced at around 8,850 RMB/ton, The high-end price was nearly 9,000 RMB/ton, and compared to early July, the maximum price difference in the market was around 2,000 RMB/ton.

Let's take a specific look at the trend analysis and influencing factors of MEK market in the third quarter:

According to monitoring data from SunSirs, it can be seen that in July, the MEK market "fell first and then rose". In early July, the overall supply of the MEK market increased, and downstream demand was average. There was some shipping pressure in the market, and the overall market weakened. In mid to late July, some MEK devices were repaired, and the supply side was tight, while the raw material side market was rising. Supported by both cost and supply, the MEK market rebounded and rose by 6.36% in July.

In August, the MEK market experienced a mixed trend of ups and downs. At the beginning of the month, the cost side continued to support the market, while MEK continued its upward trend at the end of July. In mid August, some MEK units resumed operation, resulting in an overall increase in supply. Downstream demand was average, and the supply and demand stalemate became apparent. The MEK market was weak and declined. At the end of the month, supported by the continuous rise of the cost side market, the MEK market stopped falling and rebounded, with a monthly increase of 1.48%.

In September, the MEK market steadily rose. The arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" had boosted downstream demand for MEK, with smooth supply and demand transmission. On the eve of the Double Festival, the downstream market had good stock preparation and replenishment, with low on-site inventory and tight supply. The operators on the market had a good mentality and were mainly enthusiastic about supporting the market. In addition, the crude oil market was on the rise, and the industrial chain also provided some support. The overall MEK market had surged to the high point of the year.

Forecast and Analysis of the Aftermarket of MEK in the Fourth Quarter

Firstly, let's take a look at the supply and operating rates. As entering the fourth quarter, the domestic MEK market was still in a period of relatively high demand, which had brought some benefits to the market from a macro perspective. In terms of supply, some MEK units had been repaired in the early stage, and it is expected that there will be less maintenance of MEK equipment in the fourth quarter. In addition, it’s heard that some new units may be put into operation, and the supply side may improve. Therefore, it is expected that the overall operating rate of MEK in the fourth quarter will be at a relatively high level.

Secondly, looking at the demand for MEK, although the fourth quarter is still a traditional peak season for the entire year, it is expected that the overall demand will be weaker than September. In September, with the significant increase in the market for MEK, some downstream enterprises had sufficient stock reserves. Therefore, entering October, downstream enterprises need some time to digest raw materials, and the sustainability of demand is limited. However, the macro benefits and support from the industrial chain are still acceptable, and the periodic stock replenishment in the downstream will also be stable. Therefore, it is expected that in the fourth quarter, although the momentum for the MEK market to surge is limited, the market situation will mostly fluctuate at high levels, and mainly be adjusted in a range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in news on the supply and demand side.

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