Price trend

According to data monitoring by SunSirs, as of July 25, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 878 RMB/ton. Compared with July 1, 2023 (reference price of 942 RMB/ton), the price decreased by 64 RMB/ton, a decrease of 6.79%.

Analysis review

From the data monitoring chart of SunSirs, it can be seen that since July (7.1-7.25), the overall market situation of mid to high-end grade phosphate rock in China was weak and declining. In early July, the phosphate rock market was generally consolidated to be weaker, with average downstream demand. The phosphate rock market mostly came from supply side support. In mid July, the overall phosphate rock market saw a slight decline, with limited downstream demand and a poor market atmosphere overall. The supply-demand contradiction was revealed, and some mining companies had lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate rock by around 20-30 RMB/ton. In late July, the focus of the phosphate rock market continued to move downwards, with limited demand boost and market negotiated prices continued to decline. As of July 25th, the domestic market reference price for 30% grade phosphate rock was 780-980 RMB/ton. The specific price might vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications, powder to lump ratio, and transportation conditions. The specific details needed to be negotiated based on actual orders.

Market outlook

As of July 25th, the overall trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock field remained relatively light. Due to demand drag, the supply side support in the field was loosened, and the market was mainly weaker in the short term. However, with the recent recovery of downstream product prices and the opening of the stocking rhythm in some terminal phosphate fertilizer markets at the end of the year, and in the long run, the tight supply side situation in the market will continue in the short term. Therefore, the phosphate rock data analyst of SunSirs believes that, in the short term, the market is mainly weaker, however, from a long-term perspective, there is still a significant expectation of a rebound in the phosphate rock market overall, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

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