Vinyl cyanide market may slightly rise in the second half of the year

The international crude oil market may experience a restorative increase in the third quarter

On the supply side, OPEC+ production regulation policies in oil producing countries will continue to play a role in providing bottom support for oil prices. Meanwhile, with the support of Asian buyers, Russia's crude oil export volume has shown rigidity. Shale oil in the United States has remained stable. With limited capital expenditure, the future growth space may be limited.

On the demand side, the macroeconomic environment in the second half of the year may maintain pressure on risky assets. On the one hand, the Federal Reserve still has plans to continue raising interest rates, and on the other hand, European inflation is high, the process of the European Central Bank raising interest rates has not yet ended, and the risk of a global economic recession has not been lifted. The uncertainty on the demand side increases. It is expected that overseas demand will grow slowly in the second half of the year, but with the start of the economy and further space for infrastructure construction in China, coupled with the peak tourism consumption season, it will to some extent stimulate the diesel and aviation coal markets.

Overall, in the third quarter, due to the impact of the peak travel season in North America, gasoline consumption growth, and the possibility of China introducing more stimulus policies, the oil market may experience a restorative increase. Brent crude oil is expected to break through previous highs and rise above 90 US dollars. The market may return to neutrality in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the risk of demand expectations, and the high interest rate environment brought about by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike may lead the US economy into recession faster. Oil prices may seek downward space.

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