Price trend

Last week, the fundamentals did not improve significantly, but downstream users replenishing their stocks at low prices spurred suppliers to slightly raise their quotations. As of November 7, the mainstream ex-tank price at East China ports was 8,050-8,100 RMB/ton, up 50-100 RMB/ton from the week before last; the price delivered to Shandong market via short-distance transport was 7,900-8,000 RMB/ton, up 100 RMB/ton from the week before last.

Analysis review

Ample supply:

Shandong Keluer's 130,000-ton/year vinyl cyanide production line was scheduled for a short-term maintenance shutdown of about one week starting November 3rd, while Fushun Petrochemical's 92,000-ton/year vinyl cyanide unit was scheduled to restart in early November. Supply remained ample during the cycle, with some companies experiencing inventory increases. However, downstream users were replenishing their stocks, keeping factory inventories under control in the short term, prompting suppliers to slightly raise prices. Statistics show that as of November 6th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic vinyl cyanide plants reached 77.99%, with weekly output of approximately 88,900 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous cycle. Total inventory was approximately 52,600 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons from the week before last.

Demand Declined

Last week, capacity utilization rates in major downstream industries declined. ABS capacity utilization was 71.6%, down 0.5% from the week before last; acrylic fiber capacity utilization was 73.39%, unchanged from the week before last; and acrylamide capacity utilization was 53.28%, down 0.65% from the week before last, indicating a decrease in overall demand for raw materials.

Cost Decreased

Upstream propylene prices continued to decline last week, weakening cost support for vinyl cyanide. As of November 7th, the Shandong propylene market price was 6,000-6,050 RMB/ton, a decrease of 120-150 RMB/ton from 6,150-6,170 RMB/ton at the end of the week before last. Meanwhile, vinyl cyanide prices rose slightly, significantly improving the production loss situation last week. Statistics showed that the average production cost of vinyl cyanide last week was 8146 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.75% compared to the week before last. The average production profit for vinyl cyanide during the same period was -105 RMB/ton, an increase of 351 RMB/ton compared to the week before last.

Market outlook

The fundamentals remained weak, with overall supply ample and downstream buying becoming more cautious again, resulting in insufficient upward momentum in the market. Going forward, attention should be paid to plant activity, awaiting further positive catalysts.

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