Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the average price of first grade white sugar at the beginning of this month was 6,218 RMB/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of first grade white sugar was 6,778 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 9.01% and a price increase of 16.18% compared to the same period last year.

Analysis review

In terms of sugar supply in April, due to adverse weather conditions and other factors, sugar production significantly decreased. Domestic production decreased for two consecutive crushing seasons, from 10.66 million tons in the 2020/2021 crushing season to 9 million tons in the 2022/2023 crushing season, which was the lowest level since the 2016/2017 crushing season. In terms of imports, domestic processing plants had basically digested the low-priced raw sugar inventory of the previous two years, and the long-term raw sugar procurement contract had almost expired.

In terms of international production, India's production is 33 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons compared to expectations; Thailand's production is 11.08 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons compared to expectations; Mexico's production is 5.4 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons compared to expectations; The planting area and yield of sugar crops in the European Union and the UK have significantly decreased, with the final production reaching 16 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7 million tons.

Market outlook

In the short term, due to the tight global supply and the tight domestic supply, the price of white sugar may continue to rise. In the long term, with the development of Brazil, the global trade flow and supply and demand pattern will move from shortage to relative balance. It is expected that in the short term, the price of white sugar spot market will be dominated by narrow fluctuations.

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