Price trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the price of stainless steel fell in shock in February. At the beginning of the month, the price of stainless steel was 15,900 RMB/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of stainless steel fell to 15,528.57 RMB/ton. The overall decline was 2.34%, and up 5.16% year on year.

According to the data of SunSirs, the price of stainless steel fell less than that of nickel in February.

Analysis review

According to the data of SunSirs, the upstream of stainless steel had increased except nickel, while the price of stainless steel was relatively strong due to the impact of cost and production reduction of steel mills.

Stainless steel inventory: In February, due to the slow construction after the Spring Festival, the stainless steel inventory continued to accumulate. By the end of the month, the total inventory of stainless steel was 1.4106 million tons.

Fundamentals: The 300 series stainless steel scheduling production of 41 domestic steel plants was 1,597,500 tons in March, up 6.81% month-on-month and up 4.29% year-on-year. The steel plant resumed production, the downstream demand recovered slowly, and the inventory was high. The steel plant put pressure on the raw material end ferronickel, which weakened the cost support. Among them, ferronickel was stable and weaker; However, due to the tight chrome ore and the cost inversion, the South Ferrochrome Plant may stop production, and the ferrochrome was stable and stronger.

Market outlook

To sum up: due to the increase in domestic production and the loose spot supply, the price of nickel in the upstream had dropped significantly. With the resumption of work after the Spring Festival, steel plant resources continued to arrive, while downstream demand recovery was slow, resource consumption was less than expected, and stainless steel inventory was at a relatively high level. Under the pressure of inventory, the price of stainless steel is difficult to maintain at a high level. It is expected that the price of stainless steel will be weaker in the short term. However, with the arrival of the peak season in March, the terminal demand may improve to some extent, and the price of stainless steel may rise slightly at that time.  

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