Price trend:

According to price monitoring by SunSirs, stainless steel prices rose slightly last week. As of December 19th, the average daily price of 304/2B stainless steel sheets (1.0*1219*2438, tolerance 0.91) was 11,558.33 RMB/ton, a 0.36% increase from the beginning of the week and a 4.53% decrease year-on-year.

According to the price difference analysis tool from SunSirs, the price trends of nickel and stainless steel were similar, with an overall upward trend recently.

Market Analysis

Last week, total stainless steel inventory amounted to 1.0421 million tons, a decrease of 2.01% compared to the previous week, with both cold rolled and hot rolled inventories declining.

Raw materials: The overall outlook for nickel ore is expected to be stable to slightly strong. APINI's work plan anticipates that nickel ore quotas will decrease to 250 million tons by 2026. As of December 19th, the main mining areas in the Philippines and Indonesia were entering the rainy season, which will affect both production and shipping volumes. Previously, some iron plants reduced production to support prices due to limited profits;As of December 19th, transaction prices were fluctuating, but downstream purchasing intentions remained weak during the off-season.

Supply and Demand: As of November 2025, China's crude stainless steel production decreased by 20,700 tons month-on-month to 3.4931 million tons, a decrease of 0.59% month-on-month and an increase of 5.26% year-on-year. Expected crude steel production in December is 3.2258 million tons, a decrease of 7.65% month-on-month and 6.29% year-on-year. Of this, 200 series production is expected to be 926,600 tons, a decrease of 11.07% month-on-month; 300 series production is expected to be 1.7472 million tons, a decrease of 0.82% month-on-month; and 400 series production is expected to be 552,000 tons, a decrease of 19.93% month-on-month. On the demand side, export license management for steel products will be implemented starting in 2026. As of December 19th, the stainless steel market was largely driven by export controls, leading to significant pressure on downstream and end-users to accept shipments. This license management measure may accelerate the elimination of small and inefficient production capacities.

Market Forecast:

Steel mills are marginally reducing production in December, but demand remains weak.  Furthermore, the stainless steel export license policy is restricting non-compliant, low-priced exports. Overall, stainless steel demand remains weak, although news from Indonesia may provide some short-term upward momentum for prices. Therefore, stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

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