Price trend

According to statistics, the domestic PA price rose as a whole in 2022. The price at the beginning of the year was 7,175 RMB/ton, and that on December 12 was 8,050 RMB/ton. In 2022, the PA price rose by 12.20%. The highest price of the year appeared on October 16, and the highest price was 10,637.5 RMB/ton. The lowest price of the year appeared on January 1, and the lowest price was 7,175 RMB/ton. The maximum amplitude of the year was 48.26%.

It can be seen from the domestic PA price trend chart in recent five years that the PA price was at a high level in 2022, and the high market price of PA generally appeared in the fourth quarter. The price trend of PA market declined in the second quarter, and the market price of PA rose in 2022. It can be seen from the trend chart that the price trend of PA can be roughly divided into four stages. The first stage was from the beginning of the year to the middle of March, when the price of PA rose; The second stage was the period from late March to the end of July, during which the PA market fluctuated and fell; The third stage was from the beginning of August to the middle of October, during which the price of PA rose rapidly; In the fourth stage, the market price of PA fell sharply from late October to December 12.

In the first stage, from the beginning of the year to the middle of March, the domestic PA market price rose. The price at the beginning of the year rose from 7,175 RMB/ton to 9,150 RMB/ton in the middle of March, up 27.53%. The domestic PA market rose significantly. First of all, the domestic PA manufacturers maintained a low level of commencement. The on-site PA operation rate was more than 50%. The domestic spot supply of PA was slightly tight. The price of PA on the market rose, and the downstream plasticizer industry rose significantly. The actual transaction was obviously favorable, and the PA market rose. Secondly, the price of OX, the upstream raw material, rose sharply. The domestic market price of OX rosr from 6,300 RMB/ton to 9,000 RMB/ton, an increase of 42.86%. In addition, the import market of OX in the port area had risen sharply, and the quotation of OX in the external market had risen. The sharp rise in the price of OX, the upstream raw material, had formed cost support for the PA market, and the market price of PA had risen significantly.

The second stage was the period from late March to the end of July, during which the PA market fluctuated and fell back. The price in late March was 9,150 RMB/ton, down to 7,950 RMB/ton at the end of July, a decline of 13.11%. The operating rate of domestic PA manufacturers rose slightly, and the operating rate of PA on the market rose to about 60%. The domestic spot supply of PA was sufficient, and the wait-and-see mentality of PA on the market remained. The situation of PA market delivery was general, and the trend of PA market price declined. In addition, the price trend of OX, the upstream raw material, and DOP, the downstream raw material, havd dropped sharply, the plasticizer market had declined, and the procurement was poor. The superposition of negative factors had led to the continuous decline of the market price of PA.

The third stage was from the beginning of August to the middle of October, during which the price of PA rose rapidly. The market price of PA increased by 33.81% from 7,950 RMB/ton in early August to 10,637.5 RMB/ton in the middle of October. At this stage, the domestic market price of PA continued to rise. At this stage, the domestic supply of PA was tight, and some units were not operating stably. The supply of goods was limited to a certain extent. The operating rate of PA was about 50%, and the domestic spot supply of PA was tight. At this stage, the factory had almost no inventory, the delivery of goods of the factory was smooth, the order scheduling occured, and the serious contradiction between supply and demand led to the continuous rise of the domestic PA market price. In addition, the supply of OX as raw material was tight recently, the PA manufacturers had difficulty in purchasing, the enthusiasm of OX manufacturers to start work was insufficient, the factory had stopped production for more maintenance, and the supply of OX was tight, resulting in a shortage of raw materials for PA manufacturers, which restricted the manufacturers' production. In addition, the price of OX rose, supported by positive factors, and the price of PA rose significantly. The downstream DOP market price rose significantly, and the downstream demand was favorable. At this stage, the DOP price rose 14.51%. The customers actively purchased, and the multiple advantages overlapped, so the market price of PA rose significantly.

In the fourth stage, the market price of PA fell sharply from late October to December 12. The price of PA dropped from 10,637.5 RMB/ton to 8,050 RMB/ton at the end of the year, a decline of 24.32%. The market price of PA dropped sharply, and the shipment of PA on the site was not good. Recently, the supply of PA increased, some domestic maintenance devices restarted. Anhui Tongling PA produced by OX method started to be shipped normally. The 100,000 ton PA unit of Xinyang Group operated stably. Affected by the restart of the unit, the domestic PA operating rate rose to about 60%. Domestic PA production capacity was seriously surplus, the supply of PA was sufficient, and the market price was low. At this stage, the downstream plasticizer industry was weak, and the actual transaction was not good. The situation of OX in the upstream declined, and the market of plasticizer industry was sluggish, demand was sluggish, and the market price of PA dropped sharply.

In general, in 2022, the domestic PA market will rose. The price trend of OX was similar to the market price of PA. The downstream plasticizer industry was the direct factor that affected the price of PA. naphthalene progress PA had a great impact on OX method PA, and the market price of PA was also affected.

Market outlook

The domestic PA market had a serious overcapacity. In addition, the capacity of naphthalene progress PA continued to increase, and OX method PA had been suppressed to some extent. In addition, the real estate market in the past two years was not optimistic, the plasticizer industry was affected to some extent, and the demand had not increased significantly. However, the fourth quarter of the year was the peak demand season for the plasticizer industry. With the impact of the increase of PA production capacity, the average price of PA in 2023 may be lower than that in 2022. It is estimated that the highest price of PA in 2023 may still be in the fourth quarter, with the highest price at 9,500 RMB/ton around. And the lowest price may appear in the second quarter, with the lowest price at 6,000 RMB/ton around.

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