SunSirs: The Decline of Diammonium Phosphate Slowed Down

Price trend

According to the data of SunSirs, the average ex factory price of DAP on December 5 was 2,250 RMB/ton, down 0.22% compared with December 1 (2,255.00). The diammonium phosphate commodity index on December 5 was 67.11, unchanged from the previous day, a new low record in the cycle, 34.83% lower than the highest point of 102.98 on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Analysis review        

Product: Due to the lack of demand, the market for diammonium phosphate storage in winter is depressed, and the price keeps falling. The recent decline slows down. The operating rate of enterprises is about 50%, and some enterprises are in the process of maintenance and parking. At present, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Hubei Province is priced at 2,200-2,450 RMB/ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Shandong Province is priced at 2,200-2,400 RMB/ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province is priced at 2,400-2,500 RMB/ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Anhui Province is priced at 2,250-2,450 RMB/ton, and 64% of mainstream diammonium in Northwest China is priced at 2,250-2,400 RMB/ton.

Industrial chain: On December 5, the trend of raw sulfur was weak. In Shandong Province, the mainstream price of solid sulfur is 620 RMB/ton; the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 520-600 RMB/ton. In North China, the mainstream price of solid sulfur is 560 RMB/ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 510-540 RMB/ton. In East China, the mainstream price of solid sulfur is about 520-660 RMB/ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is about 470-630 RMB/ton. The phosphorus ore market is weak and stable, the overall market is not changed much, the on-site trading remains light, and the transaction is general. The demand for downstream compound fertilizer has not improved, and enterprises are more cautious to wait and see, mainly buying goods as needed.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, on December 5, 2019, there were 16 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector. The top three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (4.27%), polymerized MDI (2.34%) and propane (1.54%). There are 9 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the first 3 products falling were aniline (- 3.09%), propylene (- 1.25%) and n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 1.07%). The average daily increase or decrease was 0.07%.

Market outlook

Analysts of Diammonium Phosphate of SunSirs believe that the market for diammonium phosphate is not good, the cost support is weak, and the terminal demand is insufficient, resulting in continued weak operation of diammonium phosphate market. It is now at its lowest level of this year, and supply has begun to shrink, with limited room for decline. It is expected that the market price of diammonium phosphate in the later period will be weakly adjusted, and it is recommended to pay attention to real-time market trends.

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