SunSirs: Rubber and Plastic: With the Support of Three Upstream Materials, ABS Price Recovery (November 1-30)

1. Price Trend

According to the data from to SunSirs' bulk commodity list, the ABS market rebounded in November, and the spot price in the domestic market rose narrowly. Up to November 30, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was around 13,050.00 RMB/ton, a 0.77% increase from the beginning of the month.

2. Market Analysis

Industrial chain: In various upstream aspects of ABS, the price of styrene market fluctuated this month. Domestic supply is good, and port inventories remain high. The international crude oil market continued to improve in the latter part of the year. And oil price increase and has a little fluctuation, giving styrene cost support. The upstream ethylene and pure benzene were narrowly sideways. The downstream PS and EPS prices were stable. The company's operating rate was good. The plant's production and sales were stable, and it purchased on demand. As December approaches, styrene will increase in Hong Kong, which will have a certain impact on the domestic styrene market supply. In the short term, styrene supply will increase, but the downstream prices are firm. The operation of factory is good, and the ability to digest styrene is good. Ethylene prices are highly accepted. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the guidance of the market and the trend of bulk futures on the market;

The spot market of acrylonitrile-related products was relatively stable this month. The supply side remained balanced at the beginning of the month and mid-month. Traders were cautious in quoting. By the end of the month, the supply of goods in the exchange decreased, and supply began to be insufficient. There is a heavily wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. And the enthusiasm for replenishment is average. However, the industry's mentality is stable, and the current market for acrylonitrile has risen slightly;

In November, the butadiene market fluctuated more violently, and ex-factory products were complicated. Sudden shutdown of the Lanzhou Petrochemical plant at the beginning of the month led to an increase in mutual supply between Fushun and Ningmei. In addition, Fushun Petrochemical LLC had a short-term parking plan. Sudden news on the supply side boosted the market. However, the follow-up of downstream demand is limited, and the upward resistance of the market is obvious. In addition, there is ample supply of ocean-going cargoes outside the disk and the price is low, which obviously drags on the domestic spot market. With the restart of Ningmei and Huayu installations and the export of Fushun Petrochemical's sources in the middle of the month, the increase in spot supply continued to put pressure on the market. At the same time, the external disk stopped falling and stabilized, which supported the mentality of some merchants in East China. The market is slight sideways. In the last week of the month, the spot supply in the north fell short of expectations. The supply side boosted the market and price turned higher. There was limited follow-up to high downstream prices for actual orders, but the market was still markedly driven by supplier prices. The current short-term supply of butadiene is tight. The news of decline in the operating rate is a good driver. However, as the downstream synthetic rubber market is limited and demand is dragging, the resistance of butadiene to unilateral pull may increase. There may be some weakness of price pulling in the middle and late months. In the short term, butadiene market performance may be firm. It is recommended to pay attention to whether the news of the external disk device can bring substantial positive support to the cargo market. 

3. Market Forecasting

SunSirs' analysts believe that in November, the ABS market fluctuated slightly, and the spot prices of various types have rebounded. The upstream three materials on the cost side have been actively adjusted this month and provide some support for ABS in terms of cost side. Inquiries from downstream factories have been limited, and buying intention has been modest, continuing the just-in-time replenishment strategy. The merchant mentality is temporarily stable, and the shipping is mainly on the market. It is expected that domestic ABS may rise in a narrow range in the near future. It is recommended to pay close attention to the trend of cost.

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