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SunSirs: Energy, Domestic Fuel Oil 180CST Market Fell slightly in November

December 04 2019 17:23:24     SunSirs (Selena)

  1. Price Data

According to the latest monitoring data of SunSirs, the average price of 180CST fuel oil mainstream market in China as of November 30 was 4,550.00 RMB/ton, up and down by - 0.87% compared with 4,590.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.

On November 29, the fuel oil commodity index was 92.15, down 0.41 points from the previous day, down 20.50% from the highest point 115.91 (October 17, 2018), and up 99.98% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

  1. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: the domestic fuel oil trading is basically stable this month, and the mainstream price at the end of November was about 4,500 RMB/ton. On November 28, the spot price of Singapore fuel oil (high sulfur 380cst) was $233.78/ ton, down $3.59/ ton compared with the previous day (converted to 1,643 RMB/ton at the RMB exchange rate of that day). According to data released by ESG, Singapore's inventory of residual fuel oil (excluding asphalt) including fuel oil and low sulfur and waxy residual oil increased by 954,000 barrels to 21,784,000 barrels in the week ended November 27; the inventory of light distillate oil increased by 397,000 barrels to 11,236,000 barrels; the inventory of medium distillate oil decreased by 718,000 barrels to 10,912,000 barrels.

Industry chain: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, U.S. WTI crude oil was $54.18/ barrel at the beginning of the month, $55.17/ barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of 1.83%; Brent crude oil was $60.23/ barrel at the beginning of the month, $62.43/ barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of 3.65%. In November, the international crude oil fluctuated upward. At the beginning of the month, the market was optimistic about the Sino US trade and it was reported that OPEC would consider extending the current production reduction agreement at the December meeting. However, the demand for crude oil in the United States did not improve in the month, which hindered the rise of crude oil.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in November 2019, there were seven commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which there was one commodity increased more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the energy sector; the top 3 commodities were MTBE (5.70%), Brent crude oil (3.65%) and gasoline (2.43%). There were eight commodities falling on a month on month basis, among which there were two commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling were petroleum coke (- 15.21%), dimethyl ether (- 7.43%), coking coal (- 3.74%). Last month's average rise and fall was - 0.99%.

  1. Market Forecast

Energy analysts of SunSirs believe that although the domestic ship fuel market trading has improved recently, the overall ship fuel market is in a downturn, with strong wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the fuel oil market price will stabilize in December, with a price range of 4,400-4,600 RMB/ton.

 

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