SunSirs: Energy, Thermal Coal Market may Stop Falling and Stabilize in the Short Term (November1-30)

1. Price Trend

According to the monitoring of SunSIrs, the market price of thermal coal fell in November. At the beginning of the month, the price of thermal coal was about 565 RMB/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was around 558 RMB/ton, which is 1.24% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

1. Analysis of Influencing Factors

The pressure at the beginning of the month on the supply side was slightly smaller than that at the end of the month

On the one hand, the domestic coal production and import base were still large, and the supply pressure was obvious, resulting in the price of thermal coal falling in the first half of the month. On the other hand, coal mine accidents occurred frequently in the second half of the month, coal safety inspection was strengthened, and some coal mine production tasks were completed at the end of the year. At the end of the month, the resource supply of the production area was slightly tightened, forming a certain support for thermal coal.

The increase of power plant daily consumption supports the formation of power coal

With the arrival of winter heating season, the daily consumption of the power plant was gradually increasing in November, and the inventory was mainly stable, forming a certain support for the thermal coal. According to SunSirs, on the one hand, the inventory of six coastal power plants in November had not changed much, on the other hand, the daily consumption of power plants was increasing. On November 1, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 16.69 million tons, with a daily consumption of 560,000 tons, and 29.52 available days; on the November 28, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 16.719 million tons, with a daily consumption of 683,000 tons, and 24.5 available days.

The year-on-year increase of social electricity consumption forms certain support for the thermal coal market

From January to October 2019, the total electricity consumption of the whole society reached 5,923.2 billion kwh, an increase of 4.4% year on year. By industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 64.7 billion kwh, up 5.2% year on year; that of the secondary industry was 3,986.7 billion kwh, up 3.0% year on year; that of the tertiary industry was 994.1 billion kwh, up 9.3% year on year; and that of urban and rural residents was 877.7 billion kwh, up 5.9% year on year.

1. Market Forecast

Analysts of SunSirs believe that: on one hand, the supply of thermal coal has been reduced in terms of the coal from production area or imported coal; on the other hand, the daily consumption of downstream power plants has increased. In a comprehensive view, the thermal coal market is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term.

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