SunSirs: Rubber and Plastics: Future Goes Stronger And Some of PE Spot Market Goes Up

1. Price Trend

This week (11.25-11.29) the polyethylene market condition was complicated. The average price of LDPE 2426H as per SunSirs in East China was about 8,125RMB/ton; the average price of HDPE 5000S was about 7,169.67 RMB/ton; the average price of LLDPE 7042 was 7,416.67 RMB/ton. Up to November 29, the price of LLDPE in East China showed a steady upward trend this week, and the prices of LDPE and HDPE both showed a narrow downward trend this week.

Near the end of November, the overall PE market demand has improved, futures have risen slightly, and prices have increased. At the beginning of the week, linear futures fluctuated and the ex-factory price of petrochemicals was mostly stable. But merchants continued to take a wait-and-see attitude, with most of them adjusting prices based on supply. The downstream enter the market to replenish based on just-in-time demand, and the low-price transactions have improved. The linear part raised by 50 RMB/ton, and the high and low pressure parts are lowered by 50-100 RMB/ton. In the latter part of the week, linear futures opened lower and fluctuated, and international oil prices fell. To a certain extent, the market sentiment was suppressed. Businessmen were cautious and adjusted prices slightly. The enthusiasm for downstream market entry was reduced. In addition, except that some of the factories replenish based on just-in-time need, majority of them exit and have wait-and-see attitude. The market plays as a whole. Most of the ex-factory prices of petrochemicals remain stable, and market cost support is acceptable. The linear narrow adjustment is mainly applied, and the high and low pressures continue to fall.

2. Market Analysis

Upstream: This week, international oil prices rose first, and then fell, adjusting in a narrow range. Monday (November 25) WTI crude oil January 2020 futures settlement price of 58.01 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.24 US dollars per barrel from the previous trading day, with the trading range of 57.21-58.15 US dollars per barrel. Brent crude oil January 2020 futures the settlement price is US $ 63.65 per barrel, an increase of US $ 0.26 per barrel over the previous trading day, and the trading range is US $ 62.97-63.80 per barrel. Thursday (November 28) WTI crude oil January 2020 futures trading range of 57.64-58.30 US dollars / barrel in electronic trading, the previous settlement price of 58.11 US dollars per barrel. London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil trading is normal, Brent crude The January 2020 futures settlement price was US $ 63.87 per barrel, a decrease of US $ 0.19 / barrel from the previous trading day, and the trading range was US $ 63.19-64.00 / barrel.

Manufacturer Dynamics: This week's PE downstream agricultural film utilization rate has decreased with orders decreasing. The on-demand procurement has been the main factor. The offer has been sideways according to the supply of resources.

Futures Trend: The trend of PE this week fluctuated upward. According to data of SunSirs, on November 29, the polyethylene futures L2001 main contract opening price was 7,225, the highest price was 7,310, the lowest price was 7,210, the closing price was 7,305, the previous settlement price was 7,205, and the settlement price 7,265, up 100, up 1.39%, trading volume 407,470, positions 438,324, daily Masukura 7,630. (Quotation unit: RMB/ton)

Imports and exports: In October 2019, PE imports were about 1.3365 million tons. Among them, LLDPE imports were 425,200 tons, HDPE imports were 643,000 tons, and LDPE imports were 268,300 tons. The total PE export in October 2019 was 28,200 tons. Among them, PE exports amounted to 8,500 tons, HDPE exports amounted to 16,300 tons, and LLDPE exports amounted to 33,400 tons.

3. Market Forecasting

SunSirs' analysts believe that the current trend of the futures market is relatively strong, associated with the stability of the ex-factory price of petrochemicals at the end of the month, which will provide a certain short-term support for the market. However, there is no good news on the macro level, and the contradiction between supply and demand still exists. The number of late-stage maintenance devices has been reduced. It is expected that the operating rate of the industry will increase, pressure on the supply side will increase, and the price will be restrained from rebounding.

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