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SunSirs: NBR Price Trend Remained Low in August

September 05 2019 08:55:36     SunSirs (Eva)

  1.Price Trend

  The market price trend of NBR remained low in August. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of NBR was RMB 16366/ton at the beginning of the month, RMB 16466/ton at the end of the month and 0.61% higher at the end of the month than at the beginning of the month.

  2.Cause analysis

  Low start-up of the plant supports the price of NBR

  According to business associations, the 65,000 tons/year NBR plant in Shunze, Ningbo, was shut down and repaired in July, and did not restart until the end of August. The NBR start-up in August was relatively low, which supported the price of NBR. In addition, the price of NBR has been at a relatively low level, and it is difficult to form a sharp drop in the short term. By the end of the month, Lanzhou Petrochemical N41E had reported RMB 15900/ton,3305E RMB 16200/ton, 3308E RMB 16200/ton, and Ningbo Shunze Nitrile 3355 had a factory price of RMB 16 000/ton.

  Strong support from soaring raw material price and cost surface

  In August, the price of raw material butadiene rose sharply, which supported the price of NBR. According to the monitoring of business associations, the price of raw material butadiene rose in August, with RMB 9045/ton at the beginning of the month and RMB 10354/ton at the end of the month, an overall increase of 14.47%.

  Downstream demand is difficult to improve and drag down nitrile-butadiene rubber

  On the one hand, due to the continuous impact of the Sino-US trade war, the export orders of downstream NBR enterprises decreased compared with last year. This year, the demand for NBR was generally poor. On the other hand, due to the National Day and the arrival of autumn and winter, the downstream production may be further reduced. The demand expectation was not optimistic, which also hindered the prospect of NBR price increase.

  3.Future Market Forecast

  SunSirs analysts believe that although downstream demand is still difficult to improve, butadiene soared, butadiene-acrylonitrile rubber cost pressures increased significantly, the market needs to see whether the butadiene soar can continue, if it can continue, or will drive a wave of rise in butadiene-acrylonitrile rubber.

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