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SunSirs: Agriculture: Live Pig Fell Sharply in November

December 02 2019 12:37:48     SunSirs (Daisy)

1. Price Trend

According to data from SunSirs, the overall price of domestic and foreign ternary pigs dropped sharply in November. The average price on November 1 was 39.33 RMB/kg, and the average price on November 29 was 32.68 RMB/ kg, a sharp drop of 16.91%.

2. Market Analysis

Entering November, the extremely high meat price has restricted the consumption of terminal meat. In addition, under the influence of factors such as frozen meat and imported meat entering the market one after another, the domestic hog market price has fell sharply. The drastic decline in pig prices has caused farmers to relax their prices. The stock of live pig continues to flow into market, and then the supply of live pig in the market has continued to increase. However, the terminal demand has not shown a significant rebound. The unbalance between supply and demand aggregates. In November, the price of domestic live pig stock continues to decrease. At the end of November, live pig price in some area has drop to 30 RMB/kg.

In November, the domestic corn market price fluctuated slightly. Soybean meal prices surged and fell, and the overall cost of farming and feeding showed a slight downward trend. Supported by the local live pig recovery policy, the decline in domestic live pig stocks has slowed down, and the number of capable sow stocks has rebounded slightly.

Data: According to the latest data from the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in October, the national live pig inventory fell by 0.6% month-on-month, and the number of fertile sows increased by 0.6% month-on-month.

3. Market Forecasting

Li Wenxu, a live pig product analyst at SunSirs, believes that the intensified game of supply and demand has prompted domestic live pig market prices to gradually return to rationality. After the decline in live pig prices, the demand for the terminal meat market has rebounded. In addition, the current domestic live pig inventory is still in the status. Supported by favorable factors such as the peak consumer season coming, the overall market hog market price has limited room for decline. It is expected that the domestic hog market price will still fluctuate around 30 RMB/kg in December.

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