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SunSirs: Insufficient Upstream and Downstream Support, Polyester FDY Swings Downward

November 28 2019 09:53:02     SunSirs (Linda)

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, on November 27, the domestic polyester FDY market was stable and weak, among which the average market price of polyester POY (150D/48F) was 7044RMB/ton, down 0.14% compared with the previous day, down 19.98% year on year.

Product

Price Type

2019-11-26

2019-11-27

Up/down

Unit

Polyester POY150D/48F

Cash

6,950.00-7,250.00

6,900.00-7,250.00

-50.00

RMB/ton

Polyester DTY150D/48F

Cash

8500.00-8750.00

8,500.00-8,750.00

0.00

RMB/ton

Polyester FDY150D/96F

Cash

6950.00-7250.00

6,950.00-7,250.00

0.00

RMB/ton

In terms of raw material PTA, Shanghai Yadong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Hainan Yisheng PTA plant have been heated up and restarted, and the operation rate has been raised to 95%. In addition, Dushan energy 1.1 million ton line is planned to be put into operation by the end of November. At the same time, affected by the downstream polyester production reduction news, PTA market fell under the pressure of new supply. On November 26, the market average price was 4844RMB/ton, down 0.50% compared with the previous trading day, down 22.28% year on year.

Enterprise Name

Capacity

Device Situation

Jialong Petrochemicals

60

In shutdown on August 2, restart to be determined

Jiaxing Petrochemicals

150

In shutdown on November 12, planned maintain for 2 weeks

Hailun Petrochemicals

120

Planned shutdown in December

Ningbo Taihua

120

On November 13, stopped for a short time due to a fault and normal production was resumed

Yadong Petrochemicals

70

On November 13, the plant was shut down for maintenance. At present, the device has been heated up and restarted, and has been discharged.

Hanbang Petrochemical

220

Load reduction to 90% operation

Chuanneng

100

On November 1, stopped shortly due to a fault and the current load is 80%

Yisheng Hainan

200

It has been gradually warmed up and restarted, and the device was shut down for maintenance on November 22.

The overall market transaction in the downstream has cooled down. The comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is about 74%. The terminal factory is currently catching up with foreign Christmas orders, and the orders are basically coming to an end. With the beginning of December, the orders will gradually decrease, so it is expected that the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms will decrease. Some orders will be issued next spring and summer, but the order quantity is not large, and the product delivery speed is average.

An analyst of SunSirs believes that polyester maintenance will increase this week, especially in late December to January when polyester devices have a large area of maintenance plan, so PTA demand side will be affected, and the market is likely to continue to weaken.The price trend of polyester FDY and PTA are basically the same in November, so the weakening of PTA will have a certain impact on the polyester FDY market. In addition, textile terminals will also enter the process of stock accumulation, mainly purchasing on demand, and there are plans to gradually start the holiday after new year's day to the Spring Festival to reduce the distribution pressure. Overall, the upstream and downstream are weak risks and insufficient support. In the short term, polyester FDY market will mainly fluctuate downward.

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