SunSirs: Increased Load and Poor Demand, China ABS Market is Weak

Price trend:

According to the data of SunSirs, the weakness of domestic ABS market has continued recently, and the spot prices of various brands have decreased. As of August 23, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offers was about 11,850 RMB/ ton, up or down by -3.27% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Market analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene has dropped in recent years. The main reason is that the cost has been falling continuously, the center of gravity of the pure benzene market has been moving downward, and the decline is large, which is difficult to support the styrene market. The styrene inventory is high, the market atmosphere is light, the transaction is poor, and the spot price of styrene is volatile and low.

Recently, the acrylonitrile market has recovered slightly, and the supply side of the domestic acrylonitrile industry continues to be in a loose state, resulting in poor profits of some enterprises. The industry has actively reduced its load to 70%, and the supply pressure has been partially diverted. However, the downstream demand is still poor, and the start-up of terminal enterprises is low. At present, due to the falling price of acrylonitrile, some follow-up orders carry your spot price, but it is expected that the recovery of acrylonitrile market may be poor in the short term.

The recent recovery of domestic butadiene market is mainly due to the low price in the early stage, which leads to the active purchase in the downstream, driving the market trend. It is difficult to find low-priced goods in the market, and driving the transaction price of Shandong goods to rise. With the rebound of the market, the price difference of the market inquiry is obvious, and the downstream mentality returns to caution. Therefore, the increase is not large.

Recently, the trend of three materials in the upstream of ABS cost side is weak, and the support of ABS cost side is general. On the macro level, the chemical industry chain continued to weaken under the influence of international crude oil fluctuations last week. In terms of industry load, the expected increase in the start-up of some ABS production lines was realized, and the supply side exerted pressure on the market due to the abundant supply in the market. However, the market in the lower reaches of the industry remains unchanged in the off-season. The demand of the main terminal household appliances and other industries lags behind, and the impact of high temperature and power limitation is superimposed. The on-site consumption continues to be weak. The merchants reduce the price and take the order, and the offer follows the market. Terminal enterprises buy at low prices and have obvious resistance to high-priced goods.

Market forecast:

SunSirs analysts believe that the spot market of ABS has continued to decline recently, and the overall trend of the three materials in the upstream is weak, which does not support the cost side of ABS well. Domestic spot supply is abundant, and demand follow-up is poor. The off-season market dominates the market, and it is expected that the spot market of ABS in China will continue to fall in the short term.

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