SunSirs: Narrow Adjustment of China Domestic Methanol Market

China domestic methanol market mainly fluctuates in a narrow range. No matter in terms of production enterprises or import source prices at ports, the rise and fall are not large. Although the coal price is high, which seems to drive the methanol market to rise, the demand is low, which restricts the development of the whole industrial chain.

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, from August 1 to August 8, the average price of domestic methanol market dropped from 2,555 RMB/ ton to 2,546 RMB/ ton, with a price drop of 0.33% in the cycle, a month on month increase of 3.24% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.00%.

As of the closing of August 8, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated narrowly. The opening price of MA2209 contract was 2,472 RMB/ ton, the highest price was 2,568 RMB/ ton, the lowest price was 2,463 RMB/ ton, and the closing price was 2,547 RMB/ ton, an increase of 75 RMB/ ton compared with the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, the position of MA2209 contract was 812,100 lots, a decrease of 44,900 lots compared with the previous trading day.

The price of natural gas, the upstream product of methanol, is stable, while the price of coal is falling in a narrow range, and the support of methanol cost is weak; The price of the downstream product East China glacial acetic acid dropped the most; Among the related products, the price of urea in Shandong dropped the most.

In terms of external market, as of the closing on August 4, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was USD 357-359/ ton. The closing price of US Gulf methanol market is 117.75-118.25 cents /gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 382.75-383.25 euros /ton, -2 euros /ton.

Crude oil is weak, supply is expected to increase, and demand changes are limited. The cost is supported or weakened, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. SunSirs methanol analysts  predicted that China domestic methanol market in the short term would be dominated by sluggish consolidation.

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