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SunSirs: Inventory Declines, Cement prices in East China Rise Slightly

August 04 2022 15:25:10     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the cement market in East China has recently risen. The price at the beginning of the week was 382.00 RMB/ton, and the weekend price was 386.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.05%. The price fell by 10.73% year-on-year.

Analysis review

In August, with the increase of clinker prices and cement prices of some surrounding enterprises, the cement market in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other regions rose.

In Shandong, some companies stopped kilns at different peaks. Around August 2, the prices of various types of cement of major cement manufacturers in Shandong increased tentatively, with an increase of 20-30 RMB/ton.

In Jiangsu, demand has recovered. Around August 1, the prices of various types of cement by cement manufacturers in Huaian, Lianyungang and other regions of Jiangsu increased by 10-30 RMB/ton.

Recently, cement prices in some parts of East China have risen slightly. From the monitoring data of SunSirs, it can be seen that the cement market has mainly declined in the past three months, and the recent market has begun to rise. Mainly because the rainy weather in the south has decreased, the construction time of construction sites in some areas has been shortened, and the demand has improved slightly. The shipments of manufacturers are basically around 70%. With the increase of clinker prices, enterprises have a strong willingness to adjust prices, leading to the increase in cement prices.

Recently, the coke market price has been temporarily stable. After the fifth round of the coke market landed on July 28, the cumulative increase was 1,100 RMB/ton. Coking enterprises are still in a state of loss, and most enterprises continue to limit production. However, as the price of upstream coking coal falls, the cost of coking enterprises is reduced, and the loss situation has not continued to increase. Affected by the recent rise in the futures market, the mentality of the spot market has been boosted. Recently, the supply of coke enterprises has mostly flowed to traders, and the coke inventory of enterprises has generally declined, and shipments have been active. In terms of downstream steel mills, some steel mills have begun to resume production. With the strengthening of finished product prices, steel mills have resumed production, and the market sentiment has generally improved. At present, the quasi-first-class ex-warehouse price of the port is around 2550-2600 RMB/ton, and the first-class ex-warehouse price is 2650-2700 RMB/ton. The coke futures market has rebounded, the port market has been boosted, the mentality has improved, and the port inventory has risen slightly. Port transactions have improved slightly, with some transactions in recent days.

Downstream: From January to June, the national real estate development investment was 6,831.4 billion RMB, down 5.4% year-on-year; among them, the residential investment was 5,180.4 billion RMB, down 4.5%. From January to June, the sales area of commercial housing was 689.23 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22.2%; among which, the sales area of residential buildings decreased by 26.6%. The sales of commercial housing were 6,607.2 billion RMB, down 28.9%; among which, the sales of residential buildings fell by 31.8%.

Market outlook

According to SunSirs’ forecast, the market demand has rebounded slightly compared with the previous period, and stimulated by the shutdown of kilns, the company's willingness to adjust prices is strong. Therefore, the cement product analysts of SunSirs believe that in a short period of time, the cement market will mainly rise.

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