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SunSirs: Commodity Chemicals: The price of Polyaluminium Chloride (PAC) Slightly Fall in The Early November

November 18 2019 14:02:32     SunSirs (Daisy)

1. Price Trend

Commodity index: On November 15, the polyaluminum chloride (PAC) commodity index is 105.41, which was the same as yesterday. It is 3.30% lower than the highest point at 109.01 on August 28, 2019 in the cycle, and it is 4.47% higher than the lowest point at 100.90 on the April 9, 2019 in the cycle (Note: the cycle refers to April 1, 2019).

Price Quotes: According to data from SunSirs, the mainstream price of the domestic PAC market is around 1,966.67 RMB/ton on November 1 and is 1,950 RMB/ton on November 15, which falls by 0.85% in the first half of month. Among this half month, the lowest price is 1,943.33 RMB/ton and the highest price is 1,966.67 RMB/ton with the maximum amplitude approaching at 1.19%. According to data from SunSirs(100ppi.com), the mainstream price of the PAC domestic market in the current month: PAC solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) after tax price is around 1,850-2,000 RMB/ton; PAC liquid (industrial grade, content 10%-12%) after tax price is 390-410 RMB/ton.

2. Market Analysis

Industry chain: In November, the production of PAC manufacturers is normal, and the supply of goods is relatively stable. However, in the third quarter, the price of PAC soars due to the suspension of production simultaneously. The price of PAC in the fourth quarter does not rise. Instead, it continues to fall. This falling trend expands to the first half of this month. Overall, the trend of price index shows a “Z” shape. In terms of upstream, the hydrochloric acid in North China, according to data from SunSirs, has risen sharply so far this month. The price is 173.33 RMB/ton on November 1, and on the November 15th it has risen sharply to 290 RMB/ton. The demand of downstream is stable this month, and the supply is sufficient.

Industry: The discontinuous production of this round has been basically finished since the end of July. The manufacturers have continuously restarted production. The notice of production suspension is basically divided into 4 steps as follow:

  1. In late July, water purification and environmental protection enterprises, which are located in Yongan Road Sub-district Office of Gongyi City, Henan Province, have received the "Notice of Suspension of Production". The notices announced that the city council requires all polluting enterprises to stop production and to improve their green production. This is due to expected heavy pollution and future pollution weather will attack the city. Once all those enterprise finished their management and get the approval from city council, then they can go back to normal production.
  2. After the restart of production, the production is stopped again after 10-days restart of production in August. The production stops on the 15th. According to the manufacturers’ explanation, the suspension of production is mainly influenced by the National Sport Games held in Zhengzhou City. To better hold the competition, the local ministry of environment holds strict inspection on all of the local enterprises. All of them are required to stop production for environmental protection and maintenance.
  3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers do not immediately receive the notice of commencement of rework, and the environmental protection strict inspection is in progress.
  4. In late September, local factories in Gongyi restart to production, and the supply of goods gradually return to normal. In the first half of the month of May, October and November, the production and supply of the factory are normal.

3. Market Forecasting

SunSirs’ analytics believe that the production of PAC manufacturers in the first half of November is normal. And the market supply is sufficient. Although the production cost has been rising, the supply of the market is large. And the market price of PAC is stable and slightly lowers. The market price is still stable.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.

 

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