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SunSIrs: Downstream or further Suppressing the Price of Coke

November 12 2019 17:54:17     SunSirs (Selena)

Futures: the market of coke fell sharply on Monday, closing at 1,699 (down 51), with daily increase of more than 80,000 positions and large increase of trading volume. Top 20 capital flows: both long and short sides increase their positions in a decentralized way, with a large increase in positions and concentration. El Nino affects the deviation of meteorological conditions in autumn and winter, which is not conducive to the diffusion of air pollutants. Last week, the coke port inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level as a whole. Last week, the weather warning limit was lifted in most areas, coke enterprises resumed production one after another, and the start-up picked up. Only in some areas of Shanxi and Hebei, there is still a limit on production, the overall supply is still relatively sufficient, and coke futures may continue to fluctuate weakly.

Spot: today's coke market is weak and stable, with average turnover. The Quasi-level metallurgical coke quotes: Linfen 1,600 RMB/ ton, Tangshan 1,810 RMB/ ton, Rizhao Port 1,740 RMB/ ton. In terms of coke enterprises, after the second round of increase and decrease, the price is temporarily stable, the profit of coke enterprises is close to the balance of profit and loss, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak, the traders take less goods, the stock of coke enterprises continues to accumulate, and the sales pressure is still not relieved. In terms of steel plants, the raw material inventory of steel plants is at many middle and high levels, and there is expectation that the overall demand will weaken near the off-season, and the pace of procurement will slow down. Some steel plants are still pessimistic about the later trend of coke or have intention to further suppress it, and the short-term coke market is expected to be weak and stable.

Brief strategy: Coke 2001 or low volatility, pay attention to market expectations, fund sentiment, inventory changes and environmental impact, and prevent centralized increase and decrease of funds.

Strategic analysis: at present, the global economy is under great pressure, and the trade consultation has made periodic progress; the government has strengthened macro-control, strictly controlled real estate to increase infrastructure and protect the economy, and the monetary easing has been reduced twice in the year. In recent days, the early warning of polluted weather in many places was lifted, the output of finished products remained high, and the supply pressure was heavy. The strong demand led to the gradual decline of building materials inventory, but the gradual weakening of demand in autumn and winter was expected to increase the pressure on screw steel. The high inventory of coke is difficult to alleviate in a short time. This year, El Nino has affected the weather conditions in autumn and winter, which is not conducive to the diffusion of air pollutants. If the impact of production restriction and tightening on steel plants is greater than that of coking plants, the raw materials will be weaker than the finished products. Coke pays attention to the capital change near the pressure level, mainly the pressure test of the critical pressure level, and pays attention to the capital sentiment and initiative of the key level.


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