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SunSirs: Logistics Cost Rise, ABS Rise Steadily (11.4-11.11)

November 12 2019 15:20:39     SunSirs (Eva)

1.Price Trend

According to the data of SunSirs, the spot price of ABS was stable in the first ten days of November, and the domestic market rose steadily last week. As of November 11, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about RMB 12950.00 yuan / ton, down 0.39% from last week.

2.Cause analysis

Industry chain: in all upstream aspects of ABS, the styrene market price was narrowed this week, and the domestic supply was in good condition. The import styrene remained high last month, resulting in the continuous increase of port inventory. Under the impact of a large number of imported goods supply, the domestic styrene cash flow was significantly compressed, but the current import volume has not decreased, and the domestic manufacturers have no plans to reduce production, which shows that The current price has not touched the cost line of the manufacturer. Zhejiang Petrochemical is expected to be put into production, or will affect the digestion capacity of imported goods. The wait-and-see atmosphere of merchants in the market has increased, and the market bearish mood has spread. The whole styrene market lacks strong support point, and it is expected that the price of styrene will continue the whole trend in the near future;

Last week, the spot market of acrylonitrile related products was stable. The supply side is relatively balanced, and traders offer cautiously. Downstream plant, general replenishment enthusiasm, maintain rigid purchase. It is expected that the domestic acrylonitrile quotation will continue to narrow range finishing in the near future;

Last week, the domestic butadiene market bottomed out and rebounded, and Sinopec's factory prices kept lowering and returning to calm. At the beginning of the month, the butadiene plant of Lanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. was shut down. The shortage of raw materials depended on the mutual supply of Ningmei and Fushun. In addition, the online export of Huajin was suspended at the node on Monday. The supply of spot goods in the North was tightened, which boosted the spot market. The price of northern export manufacturers has been raised, the middlemen are reluctant to sell at low prices, and the trend of Tianjiao futures has been good within the week. The market has seen frequent good news, which has brought obvious support to the market. With the butadiene market higher, the downstream inquiry strength gradually weakened, while the external market continued to decline, leading to the cautious attitude of some businesses. However, in the near future, Fushun Petrochemical and Zhenhai Refining and chemical plants have plans for small-scale shutdown inspection, which has a positive supply side and a significant boost;

3.Future Market Forecast

SunSirs analysts believe that the ABS market recovered steadily in the first half of November, with some brands picking up slightly. Cost side of the three upstream materials are up and down at present, not obvious support for the cost side. In recent years, due to the rising logistics cost, the inquiry of downstream factories has increased slightly, and appropriate purchase and replenishment are needed. Traders are bullish and trading on the floor is OK. It is expected that domestic ABS will continue to be weak and stable in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to cost and logistics.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with marketing@sunsirs.com.

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