Ruida Futures: Methanol Volume and Capacity increase, Futures Price Weaken again

SunSirs November 11, 2019 express news

Ruida Futures: Methanol Volume and Capacity increase, Futures Price Weaken again

Market situation: MA2001 increased positions and futures prices continued to fall. On November 11, the futures price closed at 1,958 RMB, which was - 3.74% compared with the previous trading day; the trading volume was 2,202,682; the position was 2,163,338, +94,368; the basis was -23, +19; the MA price difference between January and may was -106, -18.

News: 1. According to Longzhong information, as of the week of November 6, the methanol inventory of East China port was 1,171,500 tons, an increase of 22,500 tons compared with last week; the methanol inventory of South China port was 131,300 tons, an increase of 11,800 tons compared with last week. 2. According to the incomplete sample statistics of Longzhong information, as of the week of November 6, the inventory of some representative methanol enterprises in the inland area was about 457,200 tons, a decrease of 16,700 tons or 3.52% compared with the previous statistical day.

Market quotation: the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia is 1,905 RMB/ ton, +0; the mainstream price in East China Taicang is 1,935 RMB/ ton, -30.

Warehouse Receipt Inventory: 3,812 warehouse receipts, - 300, effective forecast 3,423.

Main positions: Top 20 long positions 541,513, + 42,887; short positions 701,756, + 49,927. Both long and short increases, and the clearance increases.

Conclusion: the strengthening of environmental protection supervision in North China has an impact on the start-up of methanol, but the expectation of new units put into operation puts pressure on the market. The arrival of imported cargoes at East China port exceeded expectations, and the unloading speed of main downstream olefin plants increased rapidly. Some of the cargoes were waiting for centralized unloading, and the port inventory picked up again. From the perspective of demand, the coastal methanol to olefin unit has been in stable operation in the near future, but there is no further increment expectation, and the continuous weakness of northeast vinylidene alcohol affects the methanol economy, which is unfavorable to the methanol demand. From the technical point of view, MA2001 contract positions increase downward, the future market or continue to seek support downward, negative in the short term.

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