SunSirs: The Overall Price of Thermal Coal Fell in China Last Week (August 16-20)

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the average market price was about 1,055 RMB/ ton at the beginning of last week and about 1,040 RMB/ ton at the end of last week. The price decreased by 1.42% and increased by 85.88% year-on-year. On August 19, the commodity index of thermal coal was 124.70, down 1.2 points from the previous day, down 5.69% from the highest point 132.23 in the cycle (2021-08-09), and up 178.97% from the lowest point 44.70 on January 20, 2016（Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

In terms of origin: the thermal coal supply in the origin has increased, and the overall supply has improved compared with the previous period, but there is still no significant increase in the output of some coal mines. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, 314.17 million tons of raw coal were produced in July, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, and 226.187 million tons of raw coal were produced from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Downstream power plants: for downstream power plants, with the end of peak summer, the demand of power plants fell seasonally. At present, the daily consumption of the power plant has little change. Although the daily consumption of the power plant has decreased at this stage, it still focuses on just needed procurement.

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China exported 80,000 tons of coal in July 2021, down 84% year-on-year and 46.67% month on month. From January to July 2021, China exported 1.34 million tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 40.1%.

SunSirs analysts believe that at this stage, however, the "peak summer" is coming to an end, and there is a downward trend in coal demand. However, it still focuses on just needed procurement. It is comprehensively expected that the price of China thermal coal in the later stage will mainly be adjusted and operated, depending on the downstream market demand.

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