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Corn Market Transaction Slows down, Waiting for USDA Report Guidance

August 12 2021 08:34:23     SunSirs (Linda)

Disk situation: C2109 reported highest at 2591, lowest at 2568, closing at 2580, -0.23% from the previous trading day; trading volume 317525; positions 344417, -32412, basis +120; C9-January spread 35. CS2109 reported a maximum of 3009, a minimum of 2968, and a closing of 2991, +0.13% from the previous trading day; trading volume was 145470, holding positions 108989, +1666, basis +9; CS9-January spread +55.

News: 1. The U.S. Department of Agriculture released a report on Tuesday that private exporters reported selling 182,880 tons of corn to Mexico for delivery in 2021/22; 2. Bloomberg’s survey of 27 analysts showed that analysts expected 2021 on average. /22 US corn yield data will be lowered to 177.4 bu/acre, lower than the 179.5 bu/acre expected by the US Department of Agriculture last month. It is estimated that the US corn production this year will be 14.97 billion cats, which is 194 million cats lower than the USDA forecast in July. The ending stocks of corn are estimated to be 1.27 billion cats, which is 162 million cats lower than last month's forecast.

Spot market: The purchase price of new grain with 15% moisture content in Jinzhou Port is RMB 2,630-2,700/ton, and the flat price is RMB 2,650-2660/ton. Starch Hebei quoted 3350; Jilin quoted 3000; Shandong quoted 3350. (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Warehouse receipts: 35,724 corn warehouse receipts, 0 pieces; 300 corn starch warehouse receipts, 0 pieces.

Position analysis: The top 20 corn C2109 contract mainstream funds reported 253234 long positions, -18628 hands, and short positions 282437 hands, -30885 hands. Corn starch CS2109 contract mainstream funds top 20 long positions reported 66621 lots, +313 lots, short positions reported 83800 lots, +3931 lots.

Summary: As of August 8, 2021, the U.S. corn excellent and good rate was 64% due to rains improving the growth conditions of US corn crops, an increase of two percentage points from last week, and the weakness of external commodity markets such as crude oil and gold spilled over. Sluggish export inspection data and sluggish demand for US corn from international buyers have all dragged down the corn market. However, the survey shows that the USDA may revise the forecast of US corn yield and the forecast of Brazil's corn production, which will support US corn prices. Domestically, traders from the northeastern regions continue to hold up prices, the cost of delivery is high, and the southern terminal purchases have picked up. Southern ports continue to support prices due to the tight supply and demand of high-quality corn at the port and the high cost of arrival. Domestic corn spot prices are basically stable, partially slightly Rebound. However, the weak market transactions and the successive arrival of imported grain substitutes also restrict the market mentality. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, my country's cumulative imports of corn from January to July were 17.85 million tons, a year-on-year increase. Imports of substitutes such as barley and sorghum were also significant year-on-year. Increase. On the disk, before the release of the USDA report, market transactions slowed down and corn futures prices continued to be weak. It is recommended that the remaining multiple orders of the 09 contract take profit and leave the market.

Recently, the epidemic situation in many parts of the country has risen. The sales of flour have been better, and the price of wheat has been steadily raised, providing spillover support to the corn market. At the same time, the arrival of corn in the market is low, and manufacturers have gradually begun to increase prices to promote revenue. The price of corn has increased slightly, and the cost pressure of enterprises has increased significantly. In the case of substantial losses in processing profits, starch companies have increased their willingness to stand up for prices, and starch prices have shown varying degrees in different regions. rise. However, starch inventory levels are still at a high level during the same period, which has dragged down starch prices. Operationally, the remaining multiple orders in the starch 09 contract took profit and left the market.

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