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Shanghai Tin Fluctuates and Adjusts, Inventory Continues to Decline

July 23 2021 09:10:50     Ruida Futures (Linda)

Internal and external trends: Today, the LME tin is weak. As of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month Lunxi price is 33,450 US dollars/ton, down 0.27% daily. Shanghai Tin’s main 2108 contract was volatile and adjusted, the highest within the day was 226,570 yuan/ton, the lowest was 224,750 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 226,230 yuan/ton, up 0.32% from the closing price of the previous trading day; trading volume was 38,256 lots, down 20,337 lots; holding 24547 Hands, 1969 hands per day. The basis difference is 1020 yuan/ton; the monthly price difference of Shanghai Tin 2108-2109 is 2120 yuan/ton.

Market focus: (1) The Republicans in the U.S. Senate blocked the initiation of a debate on the unfinished $579 billion infrastructure plan, and rejected Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s decision to advance the bill’s procedures while the bipartisan negotiators struggled to discuss details. effort. (2) The WBMS report shows that the global tin market is short of 1,400 tons from January to May 2021. The global tin market output in May was 39,000 tons; the global tin market consumption in May was 39,700 tons.

Spot analysis: On July 22, spot 1# tin was quoted at 226,500-228,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 227,250 yuan/ton, and a daily drop of 750 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals reported that the domestic spot tin price fell today, and refineries kept up the price to cover the goods. The market supply circulation was significantly reduced. After the downstream actively received the goods yesterday, the receiving volume decreased today, and the market transactions were average.

Warehouse Receipt Inventory: Today's Shanghai tin warehouse receipts totaled 2727 tons, a daily decrease of 172 tons, a 5 consecutive decline; LME tin inventory was 2,235 tons, a daily decrease of 70 tons.

Main positions: The top 20 long positions of Shanghai Tin's main 2108 contract are 17262, -1259, short positions 15604, -1106, and net positions +1658, -153. Long and short are reduced, net long is reduced.

Market research and judgment: The global new crown variant virus has spread, and European infection cases have rebounded. Market concerns remain. However, concerns about the Fed's early interest rate hike have also been reduced, and the US dollar index has fallen. Imports of tin ore in the upstream increased significantly in June, but the outbreak in Myanmar rebounded in July. There are still new infections in Ruili, Yunnan, and interference in the supply of tin ore imports has increased. At the same time, Yunnan is reported to have power cuts again due to insufficient power supply, and tin smelting production may be affected. , The supply shortage situation is difficult to change. In addition, the Shanghai-London ratio has been low for a long time, and the net export of refined tin is still at a high level; and the price of tin has corrected, downstream receiving has increased, and the inventory has recorded a decline, supporting the price of tin. Technically, Shanghai Tin's main 2108 contract has shrunk and lightened its position, and trading tends to be cautious. In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate light warehouses in the 225000-228000 interval, with a stop loss of 1500 each.

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