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SunSirs: The Market Price of Ammonium Nitrate Rose in October

November 04 2019 13:04:29     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

On October 31, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, which was the same as yesterday, setting a record high in the cycle, which was 56.46% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).


Analysis review

In October, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend rose by 8.66%. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers installed some parking, the supply decreased, the manufacturer's price went up, the supply of goods in the field was tight recently, and the domestic price continued to rise. However, the shipments of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not changed much. The downstream purchases are on demand. Due to the influence of environmental protection and control, the domestic downstream explosive explosion industry still has more production stoppages. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have limited production, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has increased. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiations in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 RMB/ton, the mainstream in Shandong is 2300-2500 RMB/ton, and the price in Hebei is 2400-2500 RMB/ton.

In October, the price of concentrated nitric acid fell sharply, down 30.1%. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1600 RMB/ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1600 RMB/ton; Shandong Helitai offers 1600 RMB/ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1650 RMB/ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1600 RMB/ton. Recently, domestic maintenance equipment has been restarted, the supply of concentrated nitric acid has increased, and the situation of goods in the market has been generally affected. Due to the negative factors, the price of ammonium nitrate market has not changed much in the middle and late October, and the price of raw material nitric acid has fallen sharply , which is a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market.

In October, the overall supply of liquid ammonia in the upstream market was loose, and the operating rate of the enterprise was slightly higher. The staggered peak and limited production in Shanxi Province and limited transportation in Wuhan, Hubei Province lead to the tight supply of liquid ammonia in some regions. However, the start-up rate of other liquid ammonia enterprises is still at a high level. As the liquid ammonia plant in Hubei Province enters the recovery period in the middle and late of October, the price of liquid ammonia has declined. In addition, in the near future, manufacturers in Anhui Province have maintenance plans. In the next month, the operating rate of liquid ammonia enterprises will be reduced, and the local liquid ammonia market may pick up, but nationwide, the overall trend of liquid ammonia is still not optimistic. The upstream liquid ammonia Market as a whole has not changed much, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has increased.


Market outlook

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is not getting better, the market demand for ammonium nitrate is limited, the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is high, and the market price of raw materials falls, so the market price of ammonium nitrate loses cost support. Ammonium nitrate analysts of SunSirs believe that the demand for ammonium nitrate may rise in the later period, and expect that the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later period may maintain a high volatility.


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