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SunSirs: Coking Coal Market Downturn at the end of October

November 01 2019 17:40:41     SunSirs (Selena)

The coking coal commodity index on October 30 was 111.81, the same as the day before, down 8.00% from 121.53 (2019-03-12) the highest point in the cycle, and up 148.96% from 44.91 the lowest point on January 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

On October 31, the overall domestic coking coal market price did not change much, and the domestic coking coal market was still weak. The coking coal market price in Tangshan, Hebei Province was temporarily stable, and the mainstream price was about 1,530 RMB/ ton. The coking coal market transaction was acceptable. The market price of coking coal in Handan, Hebei Province was temporarily stable, and the mainstream price was about 1,510 RMB/ ton. The coking coal market was still acceptable. Anhui Huaibei (main coking coal) market price was temporarily stable, the mainstream price was about 1,500 RMB/ ton, and the coking coal price in Luliang area of Shanxi Province was slightly lower, the price was 1500 RMB/ ton, and the coking coal market transaction was acceptable.

Specifically, in terms of supply, the current supply pressure is still outstanding, the coal mine delivery situation has not improved, the on-site inventory has increased significantly, the sales pressure is large, and in terms of coal washing plant, under the double pressure of coke enterprise price and raw coal price rising, the profit shrinks and the pressure is large; in terms of imported coal, the clearance time of Australian coal is about 50-60 days, the transaction situation is good, and the clearance of Mongolian coal is affected Under the control of customs, the number of customs clearance vehicles is on the low side, and the profit of import enterprises shrinks in the environment of rising raw coal. In terms of demand, the demand for coke in the downstream has not increased significantly, the procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the inventory in some mines has increased.

In the future, the operation rate of domestic coking coal mines remains at a high level, and the output is released stably; the price of coking coal continues to weaken, because the contradiction between the supply and demand of the downstream finished materials is still existing and the profit of the finished materials is squeezed, if the downstream output goes down and the coke production limit is expected, the price of coking coal with high inventory and weak fundamentals may be under pressure, and the price will continue to decline.

 

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