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SunSirs: Corn Prices Fell Slightly In October

November 01 2019 14:33:29     SunSirs (Eva)

1.Price Trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of domestic corn fluctuated slightly in October. The average price of yellow corn of grade 3 on October 1 was RMB 1851.43 yuan / ton, and the average price on October 31 was RMB 1844.29 yuan / ton, a slight drop of 0.39%.

2.Cause analysis

After the national day, the national reserve auction continued to operate normally. Affected by the increasing listing volume of corn market in the production and marketing areas, the trade subjects in the production and marketing areas had a strong wait-and-see attitude. The transaction rate of national reserve auction continued to decline, and the overall transaction rate of National Reserve auction fell to 2.24% at the beginning of the month. The last auction of national reserve corn in 2019 held on October 17 was 3.13%, with the overall transaction rate continuing to be low and the average transaction price of RMB 1706 yuan / ton. The overall outbound price was relatively stable. In addition, the amount of corn listed in the new season is gradually increasing, the supply of corn market in the production area is gradually loose, and the supply pressure of corn market continues to increase, resulting in the weak operation of corn market price in the production area.

In the middle of October, affected by the continuous low arrival of corn, deep-processing enterprises in North China and other places raised prices to replenish the stock, driving the corn market price in North China to move slightly and strongly, and the corn purchase price in the northern port followed a slight rise, driving the domestic corn market price to recover slightly. With the gradual recovery of the arrival of deep-processing corn and the gradual increase of the listing of corn in the new quarter, the supply of corn market is loose again, and the overall price of corn market fluctuates slightly and weakly.

In October, the price of domestic pigs continued to rise sharply, the price of eggs went up again, and the market of the breeding industry continued to be high. Various provinces and cities successively issued relevant measures to support the resumption of pig production. The ultra-high meat price led to a substantial increase in the enthusiasm of farmers to make up for the market. The amount of pig stocks in the future is expected to stop falling and stabilize, and the demand for corn feeding in the future will rise.

Policy: in 2019, temporary storage corn began to be auctioned on May 23, with 4 million tons per week. As of October 17, it has been auctioned for 21 weeks. The planned sales volume is 80.6 million tons, the actual turnover is 21.91 million tons, the transaction rate is 27.18%, and the average transaction price is RMB 1674 yuan / ton, including 10.91 million tons in Heilongjiang Province, 6.52 million tons in Jilin Province, 1.07 million tons in Liaoning Province, and 3.41 million tons in Inner Mongolia.

3.Future Market Forecast

SunSirs analyst of corn products believes that: the peak of corn production in Northeast China has not yet arrived, the demand for feed in the downstream is still weak, the demand for corn starch is not strong in the peak season, the supply of corn market in the future will be gradually relaxed, a small number of enterprises will raise prices to supplement the stock, which is difficult to support the overall recovery of corn market prices, and the corn market will turn to the situation of strong supply and weak demand again. It is expected that in November China will The price of domestic corn will continue to be slightly weaker as a whole.

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