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SunSirs: Lack of Market Confidence, China Natural Rubber Market Rebound Blocked

April 28 2021 13:07:05     SunSirs (Selena)

According to the commodity index of SunSirs, the natural rubber commodity index on April 26 was 39.37, down 0.48 points from the previous day, down 60.63% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 44.32% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020( Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, on April 1, 2021, the price of domestic natural rubber latex was 13,300 RMB/ ton, and on April 26, the price of rubber was 13,275 RMB/ ton, with a downward trend of only 0.19%; But in fact, during this period of time, natural rubber has gone out of a similar "V" trend, with the lowest monthly value of 12,757 RMB/ ton on April 13, and the maximum monthly amplitude of about 4% so far.

From the perspective of new rubber output, the area of China's main natural rubber producing areas is gradually increasing this month, but the actual real opening area can account for about half of the total area. At present, there is not much new latex in the market, and the price is high. Some traders have no latex in stock. In April, the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia rebounded and the situation was grim. Latest monthly global rubber production data: according to the latest report released by ANRPC, the global natural rubber production increased by 1.3% to 910,000 tons in March 2021. Among them, Thailand dropped 10%, Indonesia dropped 2.8%, Vietnam dropped 12.5% and Malaysia dropped 44.9%. In March, global consumption of natural rubber increased 7.4%, to 1.234 million tons. Among them, China increased 3.3%, India increased 40.8%, Thailand increased 8.4% and Malaysia increased 3.4%.

From the perspective of downstream demand and tire manufacturers, the operating rate of downstream factories has decreased slightly in the near future compared with that of last month. According to automobile data, the retail sales of narrow sense passenger cars in April are expected to be about 1.63 million, with a year-on-year growth of about 13.9%.

In terms of inventory, the total inventory of the previous period was 177,542 tons (-60) as of April 23, and the volume of futures warehouse receipts was 174,080 tons (-60). Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory, as of April 11, Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory continued to decline slightly, but the decline narrowed due to the reduction of downstream goods.

In terms of import and export, China: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 13, China imported 711,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in March 2021, an increase of 18.1% year on year. From January to March 2021, China imported 1.791 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 8% compared with 1.659 million tons in the same period of 2020.

With regard to the future market, the business community believes that the rubber raw materials needed by the epidemic will still be in short supply. However, due to the worry about the future international economic situation, the market lacks confidence in the downstream demand such as tires, and because the automobile enterprises are still facing the impact of lack of chips, the follow-up support role of natural rubber is weak. The recurrence of the epidemic in Southeast Asia may have a great impact on the local output of new rubber. When the output of new rubber is affected, combined with the current situation of small amount of new rubber in domestic production areas, there may be a shortage of new rubber at the supply side, and the dependence on the domestic existing inventory will increase. However, in the case of weak demand support, the natural rubber market will inevitably be affected in the reverse direction.

 

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