SunSirs: Inventory Pressure has Doubled, Soybean Meal in Chinese Market has Fallen back to Its Origin

SunSirs data monitoring shows that in the beginning of 2021, soybean meal staged a surge in the market. The spot price exceeded the 4,100 yuan mark, an increase of more than 19%. However, the rising trend continued for less than half a month, and the high-level diving market began.

The price of soybean meal on the eve of the Spring Festival fell from a high of 4,180 yuan/ton to 3,810 yuan/ton, a drop of nearly 9%. After the Spring Festival, although soybean meal has a tendency to rise, but the terminal demand is too poor, the inventory is high, the market continues to fall, and the rise is weak. As of March 10, the average market price of soybean meal was 3535 yuan/ton, which was similar to the price at the beginning of the year and fell back to its original point.

Multiple bullishes superimposed, soybean meal prices soared for half a month in January

As the Spring Festival is approaching, some soybean oil plants are shutting down one after another, coupled with logistics restrictions, the supply of soybean meal is tight, the external market is rising, and the domestic futures market performed brilliantly, and the spot price of soybean meal continued to rise for two weeks. Soybean meal prices in the first week of January rose by nearly 5%; in the second week, soybean meal prices have exceeded the 4,100 yuan mark. In the first half of January, soybean meal rose nearly 20%.

The demand for terminal feed declines after the holiday, soy meal dives to March

Since mid-January, the bullish factors have been digested by the market, and soybean meal has fallen all the way until March 10, a drop of more than 15%. During the Spring Festival, the US soybeans in the foreign market performed strongly supported by bullish factors. Soybean meal ushered in an increase on the first day after the holiday. Due to the fall in corn prices, the end of stocking by the terminal feed factory, and weak demand, the soybean meal began to dive after the rise, and the price continued to fall. Beginning in March, the soybean meal and soybean oil market had a double day, as soybean meal stocks rose back to the 850,000 tons line, an increase of 13% on a weekly basis. In addition, the price of soybean meal is too low, and some soybean oil plants are shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decline in soybean oil inventory, and the price continues to rise sharply, exceeding 10,000.

SunSirs agricultural product analysts believe that the first quarter is a period of off-season for soybean meal demand. Soybean meal inventory pressure is relatively high, and the market continues to be sluggish. Soybean oil plants are shut down for maintenance to relieve some of the soybean meal inventory pressure. It is expected that soybean meal will rise in the future and should not be overly bearish.

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