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Soybean Meal Gapped and Opened Low in Early Trading, Pay Attention to the Support of Low-Price Areas

January 26 2021 09:17:56     SunSirs (Linda)

Futures: Soybean meal 2105 continued to fall on Monday, closing at 3423 (down 58), a total of more than 38,000 positions lightened, and trading volume increased. The top 20 capital flows: Individually concentrated increase and decrease of positions, the amount of positions decreased, and the decline was greater than that of short positions, and the concentration was slightly reduced; the short positions were dispersed and adjusted, the amount of positions decreased, and the concentration of positions decreased. After the January supply and demand report, the U.S. soybean market fell from a high level after the bullishness was realized, and the weather speculation was temporarily suspended. Follow-up concerns about the decline in South American soybean production. Domestic hog repair momentum is good, and demand supports the bottom of soybean meal. Last Friday’s night trading rebounded near the 5-day moving average under pressure. In the morning, affected by the external market, it gapped and opened sharply. Fund selling pressure increased. Short-term or continued weak shocks and fluctuations. Changes in external market trends, key fund sentiment and market expectations.

Strategic analysis: The current weather speculation is temporarily suspended, domestic imports of US soybeans are still growing, supply and demand, weather and market sentiment factors alternately affect the market. On the supply side, China continues to actively purchase U.S. soybeans, and the arrival volume is high; La Niña affects the weather in South America, and there is uncertainty in South American soybean production. In terms of demand, the stock of live pigs has continued to rise, and the slaughter has gradually recovered. The large-scale breeding cycle has been restored, and the demand for soybean meal has been stimulated in the medium and long term. Operational reference: the long-term bullish trend remains unchanged, pay attention to the risk of short-term downturn, the market may drop in the important support area, and you can choose the opportunity to deploy long-term and long-term orders. After a sharp increase, you can reduce your position or short-term hedge.

Market strategy: Soybean meal 2105 may continue to be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to the support situation near 3500 and changes in capital initiative. Short-term operation: wait and see, if the market goes down and stabilizes in the 3370-3400 area, you can consider trying more, if the market is under pressure near 3500 and above, you can consider reducing more and more. Band operation: fall back to near 3350 and below the center line of the layout and more orders. Key short-term positions: 3400, 3500.

Market news: According to the USDA supply and demand report, the U.S. soybean carry-over inventory was lowered to 140 million bushels. The previous market average was expected to be 139 million bushels; the U.S. soybean yield continued to decrease by 0.5 bushels to 50.2 bushels/acre, which was previously expected to be 50.5 bushels/acre; The U.S. soybean crush is raised by 5 million bu to 2.2 billion bu, and the US soybean export is raised by 30 million bu to 2.23 billion bu. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the data from fixed-point monitoring, the stock of reproductive sows in the country exceeded 41 million and the stock of live pigs exceeded 400 million at the end of November, and the pig production capacity has recovered to more than 90% of the end of 2017. U.S. soybean exports to China have continued to grow, and their proportion has returned to the level of normal years. The sales progress is nearing completion and the profit of China's imports of U.S. soybeans has slowed down. Development and Reform Commission: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a central budget to invest 4.55 billion yuan to strengthen support for the environmental governance of livestock and poultry farms and other infrastructure construction, support the accelerated recovery of live pig production, and promote sustainable agricultural development.

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