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U.S. Soybeans Continue to be Strong, Soybean Meal Market Opened Sharply Higher

January 12 2021 11:00:30     Zhaojin Futures (Linda)

Futures: Soybean meal 2105 opened sharply higher on Monday and closed at 3,619 (up 83), with a total of more than 24,000 Masukura lots, and the trading volume increased significantly. The top 20 capital flows: the long position is concentrated in increasing positions, and the position is greatly increased, and the concentration of chips is increased; the short position is dispersed and the position is increased, and the concentration is reduced. U.S. soybeans strongly drove soybean meal to a new high, and La Niña affected the weather in South America. Focus on the adjustment of the South American soybean supply and demand report in January. Domestic hog repair momentum is good, demand supports the bottom of soybean meal to rise, and the bull market pattern remains unchanged; intraday long funds take the initiative to increase their positions, and the market is under pressure and shocks after a sharply higher opening. Short-term or continued strong fluctuations. Pay attention to sharp rises and then lighten up positions and pay attention to the weather The impact of external market trends, key fund sentiment and changes in market expectations.

Strategic analysis: It is currently a window of weather speculation. The precipitation in Argentina continues to be low. La Niña may lead to a significant reduction in soybean production in Argentina. Domestic imports of US soybeans continue to increase. Supply and demand, weather and market sentiment factors alternately affect the market. Pay attention to South American soybeans in January Supply and demand report adjustments. On the supply side, China continues to actively purchase U.S. soybeans, with high arrivals in Hong Kong, and there is uncertainty in South American soybean production. In terms of demand, the high level of live pig production and the restoration of the large breeding cycle are confirmed, which stimulates the increase in demand for soybean meal in the medium and long term. Operational reference: the medium and long-term bullish trend remains unchanged, and the important support area for market callbacks can be placed in the medium and long-term long-term long-term orders. After a significant increase, the position can be reduced or short-term hedged.

Market strategy: Soybean meal 2105 may continue strong volatility in the short term, pay attention to lighten up after a sharp rise, and pay attention to the support situation near 3600 and changes in capital initiative. Short-term operation: hold 10% more capital positions, drop below 3605 and close the position. If the market goes down and stabilizes in the 3550-3580 area, you can consider trying more. If the market is under pressure near and above 3650, you can consider reducing more and closing more. Swing operation: The low midline continues to hold 15% more capital positions or falls back to near 3450 and below the midline more orders. Key short-term positions: 3600, 3640.

Market news: According to customs data, China imported 9.586 million tons of soybeans in November; the total annual soybean imports were 92.803 million tons, an increase of 17.5% year-on-year. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the data from fixed-point monitoring, the stock of reproductive sows in the country exceeded 41 million and the stock of live pigs exceeded 400 million at the end of November, and the pig production capacity has recovered to more than 90% of the end of 2017. U.S. soybean exports to China have continued to grow, and their proportion has returned to the level of normal years. The sales progress is nearing completion and the profit of China's imports of U.S. soybeans has slowed down. USDA Crush Report: In November 2020, the U.S. crushed soybeans by 191 million bushels, which is 6 million bushels lower than October and 16 million bushels higher than last year. Development and Reform Commission: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a central budget to invest 4.55 billion yuan to strengthen support for the environmental management of livestock and poultry farms and other infrastructure construction, support the accelerated recovery of live pig production, and promote sustainable agricultural development.

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