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Chinese Soybean Meal Bullish Sentiment is Gradually Released, Prevent the Risk of Falling after Speculation

January 08 2021 09:20:26     Zhaojin Futures (Linda)

Futures: Soybean meal 2105 was adjusted at a high level on Wednesday and closed at 3,517 (down 18), with a total lightening of more than 22,000 lots and a decrease in trading volume. The top 20 capital flows: Long positions were individually concentrated to lighten their positions, the amount of positions held decreased, and the concentration of chips decreased; the short positions were dispersed to adjust positions, the amount of positions increased slightly, and the degree of concentration decreased slightly. The weather speculation on the US soybeans’new highs drove soybean meal to strengthen, and domestic hog repair momentum is good, and demand supports the bottom of soybean meal to rise. The night market opened slightly higher and then fell under pressure. The daily line retreated to the 5-day moving average. The bullish sentiment was released to prevent the risk of market dips after the periodical speculation. Short-term or high-level pressure and fluctuations. Pay attention to the trend and key of the external market. The impact of changes in capital sentiment and market expectations.

Strategic analysis: It is currently a window of weather speculation. The precipitation in Argentina continues to be low. La Nina may lead to a significant reduction in soybean production in Argentina. Domestic imports of US soybeans continue to increase. Supply and demand, weather and market sentiment factors alternately affect the market. Pay attention to South America in January Soybean supply and demand report adjustments. On the supply side, China continues to actively purchase U.S. soybeans, with high arrivals in Hong Kong, and there is uncertainty in South American soybean production. In terms of demand, the high level of live pig production and the restoration of the large breeding cycle are confirmed, which stimulates the increase in demand for soybean meal in the medium and long term. Operational reference: the medium and long-term bullish trend remains unchanged, and the important support area for market callbacks can be placed in the medium and long-term long-term multiple orders. After a significant increase, the position can be reduced or short-term hedging.

Market strategy: Soybean meal 2105 may be under pressure and fluctuate in the short-term. Pay attention to the sharp rise and lighten up, and pay attention to the pressure situation around 3500 and changes in capital initiative. Short-term operation: close the position and wait and see. If the market goes down and stabilizes in the 3450-3480 area, you can consider trying more. If the market rises above and near 3550, you can consider reducing more and more. Swing operation: The low midline continues to hold 15% more capital positions or drops back to around 3400 and below the midline long position. Key short-term positions: 3490, 3540.

Market news: According to customs data, China imported 9.586 million tons of soybeans in November; the total annual soybean imports were 92.803 million tons, an increase of 17.5% year-on-year. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the data from fixed-point monitoring, the stock of reproductive sows in the country exceeded 41 million and the stock of live pigs exceeded 400 million at the end of November, and the pig production capacity has recovered to more than 90% of the end of 2017. U.S. soybean exports to China have continued to grow, and their proportion has returned to the level of normal years. The sales progress is nearing completion and the profit of China's imports of U.S. soybeans has slowed down. USDA Crush Report: In November 2020, the U.S. crushed soybeans by 191 million bushels, which is 6 million bushels lower than October and 16 million bushels higher than last year. Development and Reform Commission: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a central budget to invest 4.55 billion yuan to strengthen support for the environmental management of livestock and poultry farms and other infrastructure construction, support the accelerated recovery of live pig production, and promote sustainable agricultural development.

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