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Weather Speculation Continues, China's Soybean Meal is under Pressure and Shocks

January 05 2021 10:14:46     Zhaojin Futures (Linda)

Futures: Soybean meal 2105 rose and fell back on Monday, closing at 3483 (up 4), with a total of more than 13,000 Masukura lots and a decrease in trading volume. Top 20 capital flows: Long positions increase and decrease positions individually, and positions increase slightly, but the growth rate is lower than short positions. The concentration of chips is fine-tuned; short positions increase and decrease positions, increase and decrease positions, and fine-tune concentration. The weather speculates the strong new highs of US soybeans, which drives the strong soybean meal. Pay attention to the adjustment of the South American soybean supply and demand report in January. Domestic hog repair momentum is good, demand supports the bottom of soybean meal to rise, and the bull market pattern remains unchanged; intraday long funds took the initiative to increase their positions, and the market fell under pressure above 3,500. Some funds were lightened. Short-term or high-level shocks and fluctuations. Pay attention to the sharp rise. Lighten up your position and pay attention to the impact of the weather on the external market trend, key fund sentiment and changes in market expectations.

Strategic analysis: It is currently a window of weather speculation. The South American soybean production cut has affected the rise of US soybeans. Domestic imports of US soybeans continue to grow. Supply and demand, weather and market sentiment factors alternately affect the market. On the supply side, China continues to actively purchase U.S. soybeans, with high arrivals in Hong Kong, and there is uncertainty in South American soybean production. In terms of demand, the spot transactions and inventories of soybean meal fell last week, the slaughter of live pigs ushered in a peak, the recovery of the large-scale pig breeding cycle was confirmed, and the demand for soybean meal was stimulated in the medium and long term. Operational reference: the medium and long-term bullish trend remains unchanged, and the important support area for market callbacks can be placed in the medium and long-term long-term long-term orders. After a sharp increase, the position can be reduced or short-term hedged.

Market strategy: Soybean meal 2105 fluctuates in the short-term or at a high level. Pay attention to lighten up after a sharp rise. Pay attention to the pressure situation around 3500 and changes in capital initiative. Short-term operation: continue to hold 10% more capital positions, drop below 3470 and close the position. If the market goes down and stabilizes in the 3420-3450 area, consider trying more. If the market is under pressure near and above 3520, consider reducing more and closing more. Swing operation: The low midline continues to hold 15% more capital positions or falls back to near 3350 and below the midline long position. Key short-term positions: 3460, 3510.

Market news: According to customs data, China imported 9.586 million tons of soybeans in November; the total annual soybean imports were 92.803 million tons, an increase of 17.5% year-on-year. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the data from fixed-point monitoring, the stock of reproductive sows in the country exceeded 41 million and the stock of live pigs exceeded 400 million at the end of November, and the pig production capacity has recovered to more than 90% of the end of 2017. U.S. soybean exports to China have continued to grow, and their proportion has returned to the level of normal years. The sales progress is nearing completion and the profit of China's imports of U.S. soybeans has slowed down. Development and Reform Commission: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a central budget to invest 4.55 billion yuan to strengthen support for the environmental management of livestock and poultry farms and other infrastructure construction, support the accelerated recovery of live pig production, and promote sustainable agricultural development. The profit of imported soybean crushing fell month-on-month, but there was still profit. China has stepped up its purchase of US soybeans. The forecast volume of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter has been revised up from the previous month. US soybeans crushed 4,926,500 tons in November, a record high over the same period in history, -5% month-on-month and +10% year-on-year.

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