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SunSirs: Methanol Market Rises and Falls

October 18 2019 14:45:32     SunSirs (Selena)
  1. Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, since October 11, the domestic methanol market has been surging and falling back. As of October 15, the average price of the domestic methanol market was 2,352 RMB/ ton. The price was 12.11% higher than that of the same period last month, and 28.92% lower than that of the same period last year.

  1. Market Analysis

Products: the methanol inventory in Northwest China is not high, and the price is high; the methanol market in Bohai Rim region is generally traded, and the market is mainly on the sidelines; the methanol delivery in Huaihai region is not good, and the methanol market price in some regions has a significant decline; the turnover of methanol market in Central China is on the low side, and the decline of spot price in the port is obviously depressed by the downward trend of futures. The demand for downstream olefins is stable. Although the inventory of methanol manufacturers in Northwest China is not high and the price remains high, the downstream users in consumption areas such as Shandong mainly consume raw material inventory, and the willingness to receive goods is not high. Under the pressure of weak overall transaction, some manufacturers around Bohai Sea and Huaihai sea have price correction. On the port side, the futures go down, the port spot fluctuates with the market, and the operator's mentality is negative, and the transaction is not good.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is on the lookout for consolidation. The weak market of raw methanol is dominated by consolidation, and the cost support continues to weaken. There is no obvious negative effect on the formaldehyde Market for the time being. The offer of formaldehyde industry is temporarily stable. At present, the transaction in most regions is mainly light, and it is difficult to boost the delivery. In the short term, the domestic formaldehyde market may be stable and a little weak.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market continues to be weak. Under the sentiment of buying up and not buying down, downstream users mostly just need to receive goods, and spot market transactions are weak. In this context, some enterprises mainly engaged in spot sales still have the expectation of increasing inventory, the contradiction between supply and demand continues to be sharp, the low-level competition of suppliers is fierce, and the atmosphere of short market is strong. It is expected that the domestic acetic acid market will continue to be weak in the short term.

Dimethyl ether (DME): the market price of DME is generally stable, the high price manufacturers call back, the market demand is not large, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively light. The average price of DME in North China is 3,580 RMB/ ton, which is 17 RMB/ ton lower than that in the previous working day. The overall price of the regions along the Yangtze River and southwest China has increased by about 30 RMB/ ton, while that of Hebei has declined, while that of other regions is mainly stable.

  1. Market Forecast

From the perspective of SunSirs: in the later period, the downstream delivery is poor, and the demand side support is weak, but at the same time, the low inventory supports price in the upstream main production area. The methanol analysts of SunSirs expect that in the short term, the domestic methanol market is in a stalemate, and there is a downward pressure in some regions. In the later stage, we still need to pay attention to downstream mentality, safety supervision, operation of olefin unit, port inventory, freight level and futures trend.


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